Explaining The NFL's Schedule Formula

Despite what their strength of schedule says, the NFL doesn't hate the Vikings.

Every year, when the NFL releases its schedule, I hear a familiar complaint. It goes a little something like this:

"How can the Patriots and Packers, the two teams with the best records in the league last year, have the two easiest schedules this year? If Green Bay was 15-1 and Minnesota finished 3-13, why do the Vikings have the eighth toughest strength of schedule?? Isn't the NFL schedule supposed to help the worst teams from last year??? Is the NFL favoring the more popular teams??? What happened to parity??? Fire Roger Goodell!!!"

All these questions come from a misunderstanding of the way the NFL determines its schedule, which is more objective than people realize. No, the NFL doesn't favor one team over another when it sets its matchups. Yes, the NFL schedule does help the worse teams from last year. But the best teams often have the easiest schedules because they had the best records last season. Let me explain.

The NFL has a blind, objective, steadfast formula that it uses to determine each team's 16 opponents. Here's how it breaks down:

- Six games in division (two against each opponent)

- Four games against another division in conference (on a three-year rotation)

- Four games against a division out of conference (on a four-year rotation)

- Two games against the other teams who had the corresponding divisional finish in conference (these are the "parity" games)

Since the Packers and Vikings are in the same division, 14 of their 16 games are identical. They both play six games in the NFC North. They both play all four NFC West teams. And they both play all four AFC South teams. With this preset rotation, we know 14 games of every team's schedule for any season in the future (until the NFL expands to 18 games or adds a 33rd team). If you want to know, I could tell you who 14 of the Giants' 16 opponents will be in 2025.

What changes each year is those final two games, determined by how each team finishes the prior year. This season, the Packers play the other two divisional winners in the NFC (the Giants and Saints) while the Vikings play the two last-place teams (the Redskins and Buccaneers). So if Minnesota plays Tampa Bay and Washington, while Green Bay plays New York and New Orleans, then how do the Vikings have a tougher schedule? Easy. Because the Packers and the Vikings play each other.

Take out its two games against Green Bay, and Minnesota's strength of schedule plummets from .512 to .450, which would be the easiest in the league. Similarly, remove the Packers' games against the Vikings, and their strength of schedule shoots up from .469 to .508. 

Since the best teams in the league are always playing teams that had a worse record than them, and vice versa, strength of schedule will always be skewed to make it look like the top teams have an unfair advantage. But it's simply not so. Just something to keep in mind before you think the schedule-makers have something against your team.

My other random thoughts on the 2012 NFL schedule:

- Much to the chagrin of conspiracy theorists (and my friend Dan), the NFL schedule that was supposedly leaked (and then proven to be a fake) two weeks ago did not resemble the true schedule released yesterday. The NFL had always planned to release its calendar on April 17th (as I predicted two months ago) and the real schedule thankfully gives more primetime exposure to teams like the Patriots, Steelers, and Saints.

- Qwest Field is the loudest stadium I've ever been to, but there's no tougher venue for a visitor right now than the Superdome in a night game. The fans are drunk and amped up after a whole day of pregaming, and the Saints offense flies up and down that turf. New Orleans won their four primetime home games last year by a ludicrous 187-64 margin. The Chargers and Eagles are their unlucky victims this season.

- We will see eight rematches of last year's playoff games. Here are my personal favorites (given how much Denver has changed, I'm purposefully excluding the Broncos here):

Patriots at Ravens (Week 3) - Lee Evans won't be on the Ravens roster for this Sunday night game. Something tells me Billy Cundiff won't be either.

Giants at 49ers (Week 6) - The 49ers get a chance to avenge their NFC Championship loss, and this time Brandon Jacobs and Mario Manningham are on the San Francisco sideline.

49ers at Saints (Week 12) - Gregg Williams' bounty speech will get the pregame attention, but I'd rather recall one of the best playoff finishes I've ever seen.

Packers at Giants (Week 12) - The Packers were embarrassed to be the first 15-1 team not to win a playoff game. This Sunday night game might be the best of the season.

- In addition to the playoff rematches, we have some intriguing "What if?" games:

Ravens at Texans (Week 7) - What if Matt Schaub had been healthy for the Texans' playoff run?

49ers at Patriots (Week 15) - What if Kyle Williams hadn't fumbled in the NFC Championship?

Giants at Ravens (Week 16) - What if Billy Cundiff hadn't shanked his field goal in the AFC Championship?

- My sleeper pick for "Team That Will Stay Undefeated The Longest" is, (drumroll please)....

...the Detroit Lions. They have a tough road game in San Francisco in Week 2, but here are the rest of their first half games: St. Louis, at Tennessee, Minnesota, at Philadelphia (after a bye), at Chicago, Seattle, at Jacksonville, at Minnesota. The Eagles and Bears won't be easy games, but it's not crazy to imagine the Lions at 9-0 when the Packers come to town on November 18th.

- As part of the expanded Thursday Night Football schedule, which now starts in Week 2 rather than Week 10, every NFL team will play at least one nationally televised game. That's great since last year, fans outside of Carolina never saw Cam Newton unless they had DirecTV or spent their Sundays at a bar like a degenerate (boy I can't wait for September). The downside of this is that we could see some really putrid primetime matchups. If you need to score some sneaky points with your significant other, skip these five games and point out how you're sacrificing football to spend time with them:

5. 49ers at Cardinals (Week 8, Monday Night) - Who will start this game for the Cardinals? Kevin Kolb? John Skelton? Bueller? Bueller?

4. Chiefs at Steelers (Week 10, Monday Night) - No one tuned into this Sunday night game last year. Do we really need a redo?

3. Colts at Jaguars (Week 10, Thursday Night) - Let's hope Andrew Luck is challenging rookie records by this point of the season.

2. Buccaneers at Vikings (Week 8, Thursday Night) - Attendance at this game won't help the Vikings' case for a new stadium.

1. Cardinals at Rams (Week 5, Thursday Night) - Kurt Warner's old team takes on Kurt Warner's older team? That's the best I can do. I give up.

- The AFC East has drawn the NFC West and Peyton-less AFC South as their interdivisional opponents. The AFC North had that fortune last year and sent the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals to the playoffs. The Patriots host the Texans, 49ers and Dolphins in frigid Foxboro in December, while the Bills also have four of their final five games at home. We could see three AFC East teams in this year's postseason.

- Speaking of the AFC East, three of the Jets' four primetime games are after Week 11. That gives the network executives plenty of time to install Tim Tebow's puppet regime in New York.

Follow me on Twitter: @BostonGiant

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