Wednesday, April 25, 2012

My Mockery of a Draft - Part Three

Fans remember Dontari Poe's incredible Combine numbers. GMs see his underwhelming game tape.
I covered the first 20 picks of tomorrow's NFL Draft in Parts One and Two of my mock. Part Three is where I expect to see most trades happen, as desperate teams at the top of the second round try to get back into the first, while playoff teams with few holes are happy to trade down with them for future picks (paging Bill Belichick). I included a lot of deals in my mock draft last year and quickly learned that you have a better chance at a perfect March Madness bracket than correctly predicting draft trades. Needless to say, I'll be going a bit more conservative this time around.

21. Bengals: Kendall Wright (WR, Baylor) - Cincinnati could use a pass rusher behind Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap, but all the good ones are off the board. Keeping Andy Dalton on the right track is priority number one for the Bengals, and teaming Kendall Wright with A.J. Green would give the young quarterback another weapon against the Steelers and Ravens defenses.

22. Browns: Cordy Glenn (G/OT, Georgia) - Ryan Tannehill is still on the board, but I continue to believe that scouts don't share the same love for him that the media does. Last year, Cleveland focused on transitioning to a 4-3 defense at the expense of addressing their offense. This year, they'll give Colt McCoy every opportunity to prove whether or not he's their future. The versatile Cordy Glenn would be the Browns' bookend right tackle opposite Joe Thomas.

23. Lions: Jonathan Martin (OT, Stanford) - Anyone who watched the Saints-Lions playoff game last January knows that Detroit is desperate for secondary help. Cornerback Janoris Jenkins has first-round talent, but I can't see GM Martin Mayhew ignoring his character concerns when three of Detroit's recent draft picks just got arrested for marijuana-related offenses. Thirty-four year old Jeff Backus is nearing the end of his career, and Jonathan Martin can be the Lions left tackle of the future.

24. Steelers: Dont'a Hightower (ILB, Alabama) - The Steelers will think long and hard about Dontari Poe as a successor for 34-year old nose tackle Casey Hampton, but he lacks the motor that Pittsburgh values in its defenders. Dont'a Hightower is a prototypical 3-4 inside linebacker, and can take over for the departed James Farrior.

25. Broncos: Jerel Worthy (DT, Michigan State) - Peyton Manning can mask a lot of Denver's freckles on offense, so the Broncos will use the draft to address their defense. Jerel Worthy replaces the loss of Brodrick Bunkley to free agency, and is a more pro-ready player than Poe.

26. Texans: Dontari Poe (DT, Memphis) - Anyone slotting an offensive lineman here doesn't realize how much confidence Houston has in its zone blocking scheme. The Texans had the best o-line in the league last year, despite starting only one player drafted higher than the third round. They can use the later rounds to address the loss of tackle Eric Winston and guard Mike Brisiel. With nose tackle Shaun Cody in the final year of his contract, Houston can spend this season grooming the talented but raw Dontari Poe to be his successor.

27. Patriots: Shea McClellin (OLB, Boise State) - I fully expect the Patriots to trade either the 27th or 31st pick for a first rounder in next year's draft. They'll keep this one to grab Shea McClellin, whose talent and flexibility fit both the Patriots' need for a pass rusher and Bill Belichick's desire for versatile defenders.

28. Packers: Harrison Smith (S, Notre Dame) - With how good a year Aaron Rodgers had, even an average defense would have put Green Bay in a second straight Super Bowl. But the Packer defense was far from average, giving up 400-plus yards of offense in 12 of their games. Green Bay could use a safety after they released Nick Collins today, and Harrison Smith is the kind of smart, experienced player that GM Ted Thompson values.

29. Ravens: Stephen Hill (WR, Georgia Tech) - For the second year straight, the Ravens' Super Bowl dreams were dropped by their third wide receiver. In 2010, T.J. Houshmandzadeh muffed a last-gasp fourth down pass against the Steelers. This year, it was Lee Evans losing grip of a game-winning touchdown against the Patriots. By drafting Stephen Hill, Baltimore hopes to put it's receiver troubles to rest once and for all.

30. 49ers: Coby Fleener (TE, Stanford) - San Francisco already has Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker, but Jim Harbaugh loves utilizing multiple pass catching tight ends in his offense. Coby Fleener is by far the fastest tight end in this draft, and it doesn't hurt that Harbaugh knows him from his Stanford days.

31. Dolphins (trade with Patriots): Ryan Tannehill (QB, Texas A&M) - I still think Tannehill will fall out of the top 20 of the draft, at which point a few teams might trade back into the first round to take him. Given that the Patriots love trading down at this point of the draft, they're the most likely partner. The Wes Welker deal of a few years ago shows that these two division rivals aren't afraid to negotiate with each other.

32. Giants: Amini Silatolu (G/OT, Midwestern State) - Given that two of New York's tight ends tore their ACLs in the Super Bowl, analysts are rushing to send Coby Fleener to the Giants. But that ignores Kevin Gilbride's offensive philosophy, which relies on strong blocking tight ends who can open up running lanes and buy time for receivers. It pained Tom Coughlin to watch his running game struggle so badly last year, and Amini Silatolu is a mauler who could bring a big push from either the tackle or guard spot.

Come back tomorrow for my final thoughts on the draft, along with some bold predictions.

Follow me on Twitter: @BostonGiant

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