Three Bold Predictions For Tonight's NFL Draft

For a supposed top 10 pick, Ryan Tannehill doesn't have much demand.

The first two picks of tonight's NFL Draft have been set for months now, and yet I can't remember a draft that's had this much uncertainty in the first round. Once Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III are coronated, most expect the next four picks to be, in some order, Matt Kalil, Justin Blackmon, Trent Richardson and Morris Claiborne. After that, all bets are off.

Quentin Coples' skill-set could make him the first pass rusher taken, but suspicions of his laziness could push him out of the top 20. Some have Jonathan Martin as the second best offensive tackle in the draft, while others have him falling out of the first round altogether. Will a GM in the top 15 be enamored with Dontari Poe's combine drills, or will teams in the 20's still be concerned by his weak game tape? Tonight we are sure to see a supposed early pick tumble, while another lesser known prospect goes way higher than expected

I've outlined how I think the first round will unfold in Parts One, Two, and Three of my mock draft. For some further analysis, here are three bold predictions going into tonight's event.

1. The Browns will pass on Trent Richardson for Justin Blackmon.  

Here are the common reasons people are slotting Richardson to Cleveland, along with the holes I see in their logic:

a) The Browns need a running back to "move the chains," "shorten the game," and "open up the defense" for Colt McCoy. Maurice Jones-Drew was the NFL's leading rusher last year, but the Jaguars finished 18th in the league in time of possession and dead last in first downs per game. And although having an elite running threat seems like it would take the pressure off a quarterback, tell that to Blaine Gabbert.

b) Browns president Mike Holmgren and offensive coordinator Brad Childress had their most recent success with Shaun Alexander and Adrian Peterson, both league-leading running backs. This point neglects to mention the other half of these teams' backfields. Holmgren's Seahawks reached the Super Bowl with Alexander, but they also had an established quarterback at the helm in Matt Hasselbeck. And Childress' Vikings floundered for Peterson's first two seasons with Tavaris Jackson and Gus Frerotte until Hall of Famer Brett Favre came in to guide them to an NFC Championship.

c) Holmgren doesn't draft receivers early. The one time he did, Koren Robinson was a complete bust. Holmgren picked Robinson in 2001. The next time he had a top 10 pick was with Cleveland in 2010, when there were no top receiving prospects to choose from (Demaryius Thomas was the first wideout off the board at pick 22). He gave up Julio Jones last year for a bounty of picks from Atlanta, which is understandable given the amount of holes Cleveland had.

A great running back may help carry the load for an established third-tier quarterback (think Chris Johnson with Kerry Collins on the 2008 Titans, or Jamaal Charles with Matt Cassel on the 2010 Chiefs). But he will do little to help the development of a young quarterback. Holmgren knows that he can't correctly assess Colt McCoy, Brandon Weeden, or any other young signal caller with Greg Little as his best receiver. When Cam Newton and Andy Dalton were overwhelmed last season, they were able to chuck it up to Steve Smith and A.J. Green to make a play. McCoy never had that luxury. Justin Blackmon can be that player who moves the chain AND gives the Browns' quarterback a place to go to when all else fails. Trent Richardson cannot, and Cleveland knows it.

2. Ryan Tannehill will not be a top 15 pick. 

Every mock draft I have seen has the Dolphins taking Ryan Tannehill with the eighth overall pick, and every rumor out of Miami confirms it. And yet I still foresee him taking a Brady Quinn-like fall into the latter half of the first round.

There are a lot of question marks surrounding Tannehill. As a former wide receiver prospect, he only started 19 games at Texas A&M. Last year, he had a pattern of turnovers and second-half collapses against top opponents. He missed the Senior Bowl and combine due to a foot injury. A few weeks ago, he was considered a second round talent. Even his supporters concede that he won't be ready to start in the NFL from Day One. And yet endless rumors, the old "quarterback is the most important position on your team" argument, and the fact that former Texas A&M coach, Mike Sherman, is now the Dolphins' offensive coordinator, have skyrocketed Tannehill up draft boards.

But let's say Miami passes on Tannehill with the eighth pick. Maybe Justin Blackmon or Trent Richardson unexpectedly falls to them. Maybe Sherman, like most coordinators, doesn't have an overwhelming say in personnel decisions. Maybe the Dolphins realize that, unlike last year's lockout-altered draft, few teams are competing with them to draft Tannehill. Maybe rumors of Stephen Ross' obsession with Tannehill is yet another pre-draft smoke screen. Maybe, even if Ross does like Tannehill, he'll let his football people make the football decisions.

If the Dolphins pass on Tannehill, none of the next teams up will take him. The Panthers have Cam Newton. After their big free agency moves, the Bills want to add a player that can help them now. The Chiefs want to give Matt Cassel one more year, and signed Brady Quinn for depth. I don't care how much Pete Carroll squealed at the Texas A&M Pro Day, there is no way the Seahawks are adding Tannehill when they're paying $14 million this season to Tavaris Jackson and Matt Flynn. The Cardinals aren't going to throw another iron into the Kevin Kolb/John Skelton fire. The Cowboys are set with Tony Romo, much to the chagrin of their fans. If the Eagles don't take Tannehill as a project to groom behind Mike Vick, he will fall past the Jets, Bengals, Chargers, Bears and Titans.

If the Dolphins, for any number of reasons, pass on Tannehill with their eighth pick, he will fall far. And if he falls far enough, Miami can trade back into the first round and get him anyway.

3. Teams will reach for wide receivers.  

If you're looking for a position that is drafted higher and more often than expected, wide receiver could be it. The NFL is a copycat league, and the common link between the last three Super Bowl winners is the depth of their receiving corps.

I'll never forget Bill Belichick's words from the sideline of Super Bowl XLVI, talking about the Giants' receivers: "This is still a Cruz and Nicks game...make them go to Manningham." A few plays later, Eli Manning connected with his third wide receiver for one of the biggest plays in Super Bowl history. As three receiver sets become the norm in the NFL, a team's third wideout is essentially one of their starters. Even if a team has one or two good receivers, don't rule out them taking another in the first round.

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Just for fun, here are the three most interesting things I learned while researching the incoming draft class:

1. His speed can't match Robert Griffin III, but Andrew Luck is more athletic than you think. He is nearly as fast as Cam Newton and is far from a "pocket passer." Could you ever imagine Tom Brady or Peyton Manning doing this?

2. Red flag magnet Janoris Jenkins has already fathered four children with three women. Their names are Janoris Jr., Janorion, Legend, and Paris.

3.Illinois defensive end Whitney Mercilus lost the tip of his left index finger in a weightlifting accident last year. Mercilus recalls, “The finger was just sitting there, just chilling there. I was just like, ‘Oh my gosh, I’m actually looking at the inside of my body right now. I’m looking at my bone.’ Which actually really is pure white, by the way." This is the reason I stay out of the weight room. The only reason.

I'll be glued to NFL Network all night, so follow me on Twitter at @BostonGiant to see my thoughts on each pick as it happens. And if you're in Boston, stop by Bleacher Bar in Fenway Park to watch me make tequila shot bets with my roommates, while the Bills faithful cheer their first pick's college highlights as if they were watching a live game. 

Happy football, everyone. Enjoy the draft.

Update (5:00pm): I almost forgot to include the obligatory Draft Day link, which doubles as my favorite YouTube clip of all time. It ages like a fine wine.

Image found here.