My Mockery of a Draft - Part One

Andrew Luck is still the best player in this draft, no matter how bored you are of hearing it.

Now that free agency has died down to a whisper, we have a pretty good sense of each team's needs as they enter the draft. To that effect, here is how I think the first round will unfold next Thursday. I'll cover the Top 10 picks today in Part One, with Parts Two and Three coming later this week.

1. Colts: Andrew Luck (QB, Stanford) - Analysts can only praise a player for so long before they tire of him and start to imagine chinks in his armor. Then, before you know it, everyone somehow agrees that Karl Malone had a better season than Michael Jordan. Robert Griffin III is exciting, but Andrew Luck has been the best player in this draft for two years. That won't change now.

2. Redskins: Robert Griffin III (QB, Baylor) - When it comes to massive draft trades, I'd rather be the side that gets the bounty of picks. Putting so much stock in one player is very risky, and teams that think they're one piece away from contending always have more holes than they realize. RG3's attitude impresses me as much as his talent, so I can't blame the Redskins for dealing away their immediate future for him. But I'm skeptical that Mike Shanahan, who has won just one playoff game since John Elway retired, can put Griffin in the position to succeed.

3. Vikings: Matt Kalil (OT, USC) - The Vikings have been in desperate need of a left tackle since Bryant McKinnie waddled into training camp. They also need a wide receiver, but they can find a good one like Mohamed Sanu or Rueben Randle at the top of the second round. What they won't find there is a franchise tackle like Matt Kalil.

4. Browns: Justin Blackmon (WR, Oklahoma St) - Everyone has Trent Richardson going to Cleveland here, but there's one question the Browns must answer by the end of this season: "Is Colt McCoy our quarterback of the future?" As good as Richardson could be for the Browns, he wouldn't get them any closer to solving their QB conundrum. I applauded Mike Holmgren after last year's draft for taking the boatload of picks that Atlanta offered for Julio Jones, but that unfortunately left McCoy out to dry with no receiving help. Unless the Browns want to doom themselves to quarterback purgatory for another season, they must take a wideout here.

5. Buccaneers: Morris Claiborne (CB, LSU) - Tampa Bay can't afford uncertainty at cornerback with Drew Brees, Matt Ryan, and Cam Newton in their division. Ronde Barber hasn't retired yet, but he probably should. Anyone who watched the Lions secondary last season isn't wowed by the Eric Wright signing. And Aqib Talib can't solve a disagreement without using death threats or firearms. Claiborne scored a saddening 4 out of 50 on the Wonderlic exam, which looks even worse when you read that sample questions include "What is the ninth month of the year?" Nevertheless, that red flag alone isn't enough to drop him out of the top five.

6. Rams: Michael Floyd (WR, Notre Dame) - There's a clear separation between the top six prospects and everyone else in this draft. Unfortunately, the one that fell to the Rams, Trent Richardson, is the one who doesn't fill a need for them. Jeff Fisher could use Richardson and Steven Jackson to replicate the success he had with his 'Smash and Dash" Chris Johnson/Lendale White tandem in Tennessee, but the Rams have bigger holes to fill. If St. Louis can't find a running back-needy team to trade up for Richardson, Michael Floyd would be a solid pick for them. Sam Bradford needs a better top receiver than Danny Amendola and Floyd's stock is rising, as some scouts rank him ahead of Justin Blackmon.

7. Jaguars: Quinton Coples (DE, North Carolina) - The draft opens up considerably at this point, as most of the prospects from here on out have noticeable question marks. Quinton Coples' height and speed reminds scouts of fellow UNC alum Julius Peppers, but his seemingly lazy attitude makes them wary. NFL draft guru Mike Mayock went so far as to say he wouldn't draft Coples in any round. However, Jaguars GM Gene Smith isn't afraid to reach for talent, as he did with defensive tackle Tyson Alualu in 2010.

8. Dolphins: Melvin Ingram (DE, South Carolina) - Lots of experts have Miami taking Ryan Tannehill here, citing that Jake Locker and Christian Ponder unexpectedly went in the top 12 last year. Some think the Dolphins will even have to trade up to get him. I beg to differ. 

Oftentimes the media fixates on the importance of the quarterback position and lifts a second-tier prospect into the top 10, banking on some desperate team to reach for him. Then, everyone is surprised when he falls through the first round. Think Ryan Mallett last year, Jimmy Clausen in 2010, Brady Quinn in 2007, or even Aaron Rodgers in 2005. Teams were forced to reach for Locker and Ponder last year because of the lockout, not because of some new-found emphasis on passers. Labor strife delayed free agency past the point of the draft, so the Titans and Vikings had to take a risk on a young quarterback now, lest they come up empty in the veteran market. With free agency having come at it's usual time this March, quarterback suitors like the Broncos, Seahawks, and Jets have already addressed their needs. Miami can take Melvin Ingram with this pick (they desperately need another pass rusher alongside Cameron Wake), knowing that there's a good chance Tannehill falls into the latter half of the first round. Then, if they still want the quarterback, they can use their second round pick to trade up for him (as the Browns did for Quinn in 2007).

9. Panthers: Fletcher Cox (DT, Mississippi St) - Cam Newton's revelation overshadowed the fact that Carolina had one of the worst defenses in the league last season. This is a strong defensive tackle class, and although Dontari Poe put up freakish numbers at the Scouting Combine, he's never shown the on-field production that Fletcher Cox has.

10. Bills: Riley Reiff (OT, Iowa) - Buffalo used free agency to upgrade their pass rush by aggressively signing Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Now they'll use the draft to address their left tackle position after they declined to bring back Demetress Bell. Most scouts have Riley Reiff, out of o-line factory Iowa, a shade above Stanford's Jonathan Martin.

Check back later this week for Picks 11-20 in Part Two of my mock draft.

Follow me on Twitter: @BostonGiant

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