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| Five years from now, even a "cant-miss" prospect like Trent Richardson may be looking for a new employer. |
Nothing displays the height of football's popularity like the NFL Draft. The event features men in suits critiquing another group of men in suits for the names they write on index cards. It couldn't be any less athletic, and yet its television ratings rival the playoff games of other American sports.
However, as you join the over 40 million fans tuning into the draft this weekend, just keep in mind that only a fraction of these players we obsess over will have a significant impact in the games themselves. Just look back at the 2007 draft, and you'll see that only 13 of the 32 first round picks are still with the teams that drafted them, including only four of the top 10 picks. Robert Grifiin III, Matt Kalil, and Trent Richardson all look like sure things right now, but history shows that even the highest picks bring more busts than booms. For many of these players, the cheers they hear this weekend will be the loudest they'll ever enjoy.
I covered the top ten picks in Part One of my mock draft last week. Today, we continue with numbers 11 to 20.
11. Chiefs: Trent Richardson (RB, Alabama) - Do I really expect Trent Richardson to fall out of the Top 10? No. If the Browns and Buccaneers indeed pass on him, then some team will trade with the Rams or Jaguars to get the best RB prospect since Adrian Peterson. But if Richardson somehow falls this far, then the Chiefs will take him despite their addition of Peyton Hillis.
12. Seahawks: Luke Kuechly (ILB, Boston College) - If Luke Kuechly has any red flags, I haven't seen them. He led the nation in tackles in each of the last two seasons. He won the 2011 Bronco Nagurski Trophy as college football's best defender. And he put up strong measurements at the Scouting Combine. Ten years ago, he'd be a guaranteed top five pick. But in the 2012 passing NFL, linebackers are not a priority unless they can rush the quarterback. Nevertheless, Kuechly won't fall past Seattle, who is in big need of run-stopper after David Hawthorne left in free agency.
13. Cardinals: David DeCastro (G, Stanford) - Arizona would love to grab a wide receiver here to take some heat off of Larry Fitzgerald, but Michael Floyd won't fall this far and Kendall Wright would be a reach. The Cardinals offensive line needs some help, and David DeCastro is drawing comparisons to Steve Hutchinson.
14. Cowboys: Mark Barron (S, Alabama) - When Jerry Jones thinks of the Cowboys' disappointing 2011 season, he remembers Eli Manning abusing the Cowboys secondary for 731 yards and 68 points in two backbreaking losses. Brandon Carr was a big free agency addition, but Dallas isn't done adding defensive backs. Mark Barron is the type of versatile safety needed against the athletic receiving tight ends of today's NFL.
15. Eagles: Michael Brockers (DT, LSU) - Six of Andy Reid's 12 first round picks have been defensive linemen. Eagle fans may want him to break from tradition, but there are few coaches who stick to their philosophy as stubbornly as Reid does. Cullen Jenkins had a solid first season in Philadelphia, but he's on the wrong side of 30 and the Eagles will need to groom his replacement. With Jason Babin and Trent Cole providing plenty of pressure from the edges (29 sacks between them last season), Philadelphia could use a run-stopping force in the middle like Michael Brockers.
16. Jets: Courtney Upshaw (DE/OLB, Alabama) - Even with all his bravado, Rex Ryan realizes that his blitz schemes can only do so much without a talented pass rusher. Courtney Upshaw was a disruptive force at Alabama, but some scouts worry that he'll need to be carefully managed as a 3-4 outside linebacker. I couldn't think of a better coach to put him in the right position than Ryan.
17. Bengals: Stephon Gilmore (CB, South Carolina) - Nate Clements worked out well enough for the Bengals last season, so Cincinnati added Terence Newman to their collection of "former Pro Bowl big money cornerbacks who are now past their prime." With Leon Hall recovering from a torn ACL, Cincinnati would be smart to use one of their first round picks on their secondary. Stephon Gilmore is shooting up draft boards, and some even think the Jaguars could take him with the seventh overall pick.
18. Chargers - Chandler Jones (DE/OLB, Syracuse) - No one ruins more mock drafts than Chargers GM A.J. Smith. Why address a position of need, when you could trade up 16 spots to draft Ryan Mathews a month after you signed Darren Sproles to a seven million dollar extension? San Diego knows it needs another pass rusher to beat Peyton Manning, and Chandler Jones fits the bill. So I look forward to watching Smith trade down 10 spots to draft a tight end.
19. Bears: Whitney Mercilus (DE, Illinois) - Chicago spent half a decade insisting that Devin Hester was a number one wide receiver until new GM Phil Emery finally traded for Brandon Marshall in March. Now, they insist that their offensive line is fine, even as Jay Cutler runs for his life on every play. Instead, Chicago will grab Whitney Mercilus to help Julius Peppers harass Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford.
20. Titans: Dre Kirkpatrick (CB, Alabama) - Tennessee is in sore need of a pass rush, but most of the top defensive ends are off the board. Dre Kirkpatrick fills the hole Cortland Finnegan left when the Pro Bowler decided to reunite with coach Jeff Fisher in St. Louis.
Check Part Three tomorrow for the final 12 picks of my mock draft.
Follow me on Twitter: @BostonGiant
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