Alex Smith: Super Bowl Champion?

The 49ers will go as far as Alex Smith manages them.

What team has the biggest division lead in this young season?  That would be the 5-1 San Francisco 49ers.  Jim Harbaugh, who I thought would have a tough time transitioning from college to the pros after a lockout, instead has a two-and-a-half game lead over the rest of the NFC West.  For the first time in nine years, San Francisco seems destined for the playoffs.

In fact, if not for a furious comeback by the Cowboys, the 49ers could be undefeated right now.  Furthermore, as only four of their 10 remaining opponents currently have a winning record, it's very possible that San Francisco could get a bye.  A playoff spot is one thing, but could we actually see the 49ers, an afterthought in August, hoist the Lombardi Trophy on February 5th?

With core players like Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, Patrick Willis and Justin Smith, San Francisco has long had the talent to take advantage of a weak division, but shoddy quarterback play has continually held them back.  Not anymore, as Alex Smith has shown marked improvement under Harbaugh's tutelage.  Smith had 87 turnovers in only 54 career games before 2011, but has only two interceptions and is 8th in the league in passer rating this season.  He's come up big when it matters, leading a 20-point comeback in Philadelphia and throwing the game-winning touchdown in Detroit.

Still, there remains much to be skeptical about Smith.  He's 20th among quarterbacks in yards per attempt and 25th in passing yards.  In the most prolific passing year in league history, Smith has thrown for over 200 yards only once this season.  More advanced metrics, like ESPN's new Total QB Rating, has him as the 6th worst QB in the league.  He is this year's token "game manager," a quarterback who piles up wins but not stats.  Can the 49ers actually win the Super Bowl with him at quarterback?  

Smith is currently on pace for 2,900 yards, so I looked back at playoff teams since 2000 who threw for less than 3,000 yards.  Of those 20 teams, 13 of them were one-and-done once the postseason started.  The most recent example was last year's Chiefs, who rode a cream puff schedule in an easy division to a home playoff game, where they were summarily dismissed by the Ravens defense.  It seems that weak passing offenses don't make it far in January.

However, I also found two BIG exceptions on that list: the 2000 Ravens and 2005 Steelers, both Super Bowl champions.  Quarterbacked by Trent Dilfer and a young Ben Roethlisberger, the Ravens and Steelers had the 22nd and 24th best passing offenses in the league, respectively.  And yet, each of those teams succeeded in the playoffs because its powerful running game and staunch defense was among the best in the game

It's still early, but this year's 49er team bears a strong resemblance to both those two champions.  The Ravens and Steelers were both 5th in the league in rushing.  The 49ers currently sit...5th in the league in rushing.  Baltimore had the best scoring defense in 2000, while Pittsburgh had the 4th best in 2005.  San Francisco so far?  2nd.

The most common way to win a Super Bowl is to have an elite quarterback.  But if you don't have one, you can still reach the promise land with a top-notch defense and running game.  Smith will never be mistaken with Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady, but he is doing all the right things in a year when the 49ers have the rest of the pieces in place.  Alex Smith may be the quintessential game manager, but he can absolutely win a championship.  He wouldn't be the first.

Image found here.