Touchbacks Galore: Why The Kickoff Return is Dying

Seven months ago, when the NFL announced that it was moving kickoffs up to the 35-yard line, I wrote that touchbacks would become the norm and kickoff returns would start to disappear.  It's just five weeks into the season, and even I am surprised with how much of an effect the rule change has had.

One in every two kickoffs now results in a touchback.  There were 419 touchbacks all of last year, but through only five weeks this season, we've already had 400.  But this isn't the first time kickoffs have started at the 35-yard line, so, to put this into some historical context, I decided to go back and see how the touchback rate has changed over the past two decades.

From this chart above, we can see how rule changes have effected the kicking game.  In the early 1990's, touchbacks were reaching an all-time high, as one in four kicks were not returned.  Then, in 1994, the competition committee moved the kickoff back to the 30-yard line to create more opportunities for return men.  You can clearly see the impact, as the touchback rate immediately plummeted from 27% to 7%.  

Kickers eventually adjusted, raising the touchback level back to 16% in 1998, until the NFL threw another obstacle at them: the K ball.  Prior to 1999, kickers and punters did everything to doctor balls before games, from brushing them, to baking them, to washing them in milk and hitting them with hammers.  The effectiveness of those tactics is debatable, but the impact of the K-ball is undeniable.  In 1999, touchbacks again tumbled to just 10% of kickoffs.  They stayed under that mark for the better part of a decade, until kickers again started to adjust in the last five years.  They'd gotten their touchback rate back up to its pre-K ball level, until the NFL threw them a bone with this year's rule.

Still, if the kickoff was moved up to the same spot as it was prior to 1993, then why are kicks sailing into the end zone twice as often as they did back then?

The answer is pretty simple: kickers are stronger now than they've ever been.  Whether it be because of better training, improved techniques, more indoor stadiums, or smarter scouting that finds the best talent at the position, kickers are booting it a full six yards farther than they did 18 years ago.  In 1993, the average kick traveled 60 yards and was fielded at the 5-yard line.  This year, a typical kick will sail 66 yard and pin the returner two yards into his own end zone.  What's worse is that after three kickoff return touchdowns in Week 1, there's been only one in the four weeks since.  After having to overcome some big hurdles in the past two decades, kickers are now free to let 'er rip.  This is great for them, but awful for those of us who appreciated kickoff returns as more than a sandwich break.

Having 50% of kickoffs as non-plays is definitely a problem, and it's a tough one to fix.  The league can't move kickoffs back to the 30-yard line after they made such an issue of injury prevention in the offseason.  Pushing touchbacks up to the 25-yard line would help starting field position for offenses, but it would discourage returners from taking it out of the end zone and lead to even more touchbacks.  

The one solution that might work is decreasing the running start that the coverage unit has before the kick.  The NFL already decreased it from 10 to five yards this season, which has slightly increased the length of returns.  But cutting it to three or even two yards would both encourage returners to take the ball out of the end zone, and decrease the speed at which coverage men hit their blockers.  It would make the game safer, and bring the kickoff return back from the brink of extinction.