NFL Week 6 Picks

Does Peyton Manning know this guy is eavesdropping on his play calls?

Right now, we're still at that murky part of the season where no one really knows how good everyone else is.  We have a handful of teams that look like they can beat anybody (the Patriots, Packers, Lions and Saints), a few that look like they'll never beat anybody (the Colts, Dolphins and Rams), and a whole mess of teams that could either win their division or finish 6-10.

In half of this week's matchups, a team is favored by at least a touchdown.  I now expect at least three overtime games on Sunday.

Last week: 7-6, 8-5 Against the Spread (ATS)

Season: 50-27, 36-36-5 ATS

Bills at Giants - Maybe I'm a homer.  Maybe I'm ignoring the fact that the Giants' secondary has been bruised and battered this season, and the Bills have one of the deepest receiving corps in the league.  Or that Buffalo's opportunistic defense is playing a turnover-prone New York offense.  Maybe I'm hoping for the best because I'll be watching this one from the upper deck of Metlife Stadium. But defensive coordinator Perry Fewell, who Buffalo let go two seasons ago, has a knack for gameplans that stifle an opponent's best player.  I think he'll find a way to slow Fred Jackson, the centerpiece of the Bills' offense.

Pick - Giants

ATS - Giants (-3.5)

Colts at Bengals - My friend Pat joked in September that Jim Caldwell was 0-2 as the Colts coach, but most of Indianapolis probably shares that sentiment right now.  Let's just say Caldwell is not the guy I want next to me if my plane is going down.  Cincinnati's defense is first in the league, and Curtis Painter's hair won't change that.

Pick - Bengals

ATS - Bengals (-7)

Jaguars at Steelers - Doesn't it feel like ages ago that many draft analysts lobbied for Blaine Gabbert over Cam Newton?  Gabbert, near the bottom in nearly every passing category, is enduring a typical rookie quarterback season.

Pick - Steelers

ATS - Steelers (-13)

Eagles at Redskins - If I told you before the season that the Eagles had the 3rd best offense in the league and had fourth quarter leads in four of their first five games, you'd probably think they were off to the great start we expected.  But a -10 turnover margin, with a league-high seven interceptions thrown by Michael Vick, has left them with a make-or-break game against the Redskins.

Pick - Eagles

ATS - Eagles (-1)

49ers at Lions - Only Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers have a better passer rating this season than Alex "Nine Lives" Smith.  I thought that the lockout was the only thing that saved Smith his job, but Jim Harbaugh apparently saw something in him that the rest of us didn't.

Pick - Lions

ATS - 49ers (+4.5)

Rams at Packers - St. Louis' brutal opening schedule continues.  The Packers have one of the best run defenses in the league, which is not good for a Ram offense that desperately needs to take some pressure off Sam Bradford.

Pick - Packers

ATS - Packers (-15)

Panthers at Falcons - Defensive end Ray Edwards, with only 12 tackles and one sack, is not having the impact that the Falcons expected when they signed him in the offseason.  Atlanta is determined to become a high-powered passing offense, but they should keep handing the ball to Michael Turner against a weak Carolina front.

Pick - Falcons

ATS - Falcons (-4)

Browns at Raiders - Some moments are too poetic not to happen.  Playing on the road the day after their iconic owner's death, the Raiders upset the Texans with an interception on the final play of the game.  I don't believe that Oakland can keep this up all season with such a poor defense, but I do think they can beat the Browns in an emotional home game.

Pick - Raiders

ATS - Browns (+7)

Texans at Ravens - Gary Kubiak's team is once again doing its "one step forward, one step back" dance.  Houston's division could not be weaker, but the Texans can't get out of their own way.  And yet, I think they pull the upset here over Joe Flacco, who has inexcusably completed only 49.3 percent of his passes.

Pick - Texans

ATS - Texans (+7)

Saints at Buccaneers - Most of us were surprised that Tampa got blown out of Candlestick Park on Sunday, but maybe we shouldn't have been.  After all, their three wins have come against teams with a combined 3-12 record.  A narrow defeat at Green Bay on Kickoff Thursday remains the only blemish on New Orleans' season.

Pick - Saints

ATS - Saints (-4)

Cowboys at Patriots - Watch a pregame show Sunday morning, and you'll hear every analyst note that Rob Ryan held the Patriots defense to 14 points when he was with the Browns last year.  But Tom Brady has won his last 30 regular season starts at Foxborough.

Pick - Patriots

ATS - Patriots (-7)

Vikings at Bears - In my preseason preview, I picked the Bears to go from first to worst in the NFC North.  Jared Allen looks like his old self, on pace for 27 sacks.  The Chicago offensive line also looks like its old self, on pace to get Jay Cutler killed.

Pick - Vikings

ATS - Vikings (+3)

Dolphins at Jets - Monday Night Football seems to be nostalgic for classic comebacks this season.  First we had Colts-Buccaneers, and now we get to watch Jumbo Elliott hamfisting a touchdown pass on repeat.  The old Giants Stadium had a capacity of 81,000 fans, but I've met approximately 100,000 Jets fans who tell me they were at this game.

Pick - Jets

ATS - Jets (-7.5)

 
Odds courtesy of USA Today.
Image found here.