Chasing Records: Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and 5,084 Passing Yards

Most people, including even Dan Marino himself, are taking it for granted that his
record will be broken this season.  It may, but not by the quarterback you might expect.

Over the next couple of weeks, I'll take a look at some of the NFL records that are threatened this year, and predict whether they'll be broken.

Of all the individual single-season records in football, the most well-known one might be Dan Marino's 5,084 passing yards in 1984.  In the 27 years since, rules have been altered to help quarterbacks and offenses have been streamlined, but no one has been able to match Marino's mark.

However, after a historic September for passing, many have taken it for granted that this will be the year that Marino's record falls.  After three weeks, Tom Brady was on pace for 7,000 yards.  A mere two weeks ago, seven quarterbacks were within striking distance of the record.  Even Marino has resigned himself to the probability that someone will break his mark.  

But let's not jump to conclusions.  This isn't the first time someone has had the record in their sights after Week 7.  Nine times since 1984, a player has been on pace to surpass 5,084 at this point in the season.  Joe Montana, Drew Bledsoe, and Steve Young all challenged the mark in the '90s, but they each faded as the weather grew frostier.  In 2000, Kurt Warner was further along than Brady is now, but he suffered an injury and missed five games.  You may remember that Philip Rivers looked in good position to set the record last year, but some tough division matchups and a 185-yard effort in Indianapolis doomed his chances.

Despite the blistering start to the season, passing yards have dropped in the last few weeks as secondaries have adjusted.  Now, only three quarterbacks are on pace to break Marino's record: Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers.  Here is what I think of their chances.

Aaron Rodgers - With 2,372 yards, Rodgers is on pace to throw for 5,422 this season.  To break the record, he needs to average 301 yards in each of his remaining nine games.  However, he's thrown for only 239 yards per game when he plays outdoors, and he has only two games left that will be played in ideal conditions (at San Diego and at Detroit).  Furthermore, his ability to scramble, valuable as it is, does leave him open to injury.  Finally, with a 7-0 record and the rest of the NFC teams knocking each other off, it's possible that Green Bay will have home field advantage locked up early and rest Rodgers before the playoffs.  He's playing the position right now as well as any quarterback I've ever seen, but I don't think he'll continue to post the stats to pass Marino.

Tom Brady - After averaging a ludicrous 442 yards in his first three starts, everyone all but awarded the single-season passing record to Brady.  Even after slowing down considerably, Brady is still on pace to throw for a record-shattering 5,768 yards this season.  As we saw in 2007, when he set the record for most passing touchdowns in a season, Brady has a huge ally in his coach when it comes to these quests.  If he has a shot at Marino in the last two games at home against Miami and Buffalo, Bill Belichick will give Brady every chance to get there.  However, as with Rodgers, Mother Nature will be his biggest obstacle.  As New England enters its typically cold December, Brady's passing yards have dropped to 219 yards per game in his career.  Brady doesn't have one single indoor game left on his schedule, and I don't see him keeping up the 292 yards per game pace that he needs in frigid Foxboro.

Drew Brees - Brees currently leads the league in passing, thanks to a record four straight games with 350+ passing yards.  He's immune to the weather concerns that Brady and Rodgers have, because a whopping eight of his nine remaining games will be played in a dome.  For his career, he averages 288 yards in indoor games, which also happens to be what he needs to catch Marino.  Because the NFC South looks to be a dogfight again this year, there's little chance that he'll rest in the final weeks of the season.  And Sean Payton's pass-happy philosophy gives Brees more chances than any other quarterback in the league, as he's on pace to throw the second-most passes ever attempted in a season.  In fact, of the top seven highest pass attempt seasons in NFL history, Brees has three of them.

What makes me believe that Brees will pass Marino, more than anything else, is the fact that he's already come close to doing so.  In 2008, Brees needed 402 yards in his final game to break Marino's record.  He passed for 386, narrowly missing the mark (and he might have made it if he the Saints hadn't gotten such great field position on their last drive).  Brady and Rodgers will finish with better records and more MVP votes, but because of his schedule, his offense, and his history, it will be Brees who passes Marino and takes the crown as the new single-season passing champion.

Image found here.