Chasing Records: Jared Allen and 22.5 Sacks

Does Jared Allen only raise one arm if he's dancing for a half-sack?

NFL teams are throwing more than ever before, and that has put some passing records at risk.  The flip side is that defenders are getting more chances to sack the quarterback, and no player has taken more advantage of that this season than Jared Allen.

Seven games into the season, Allen has 11.5 sacks, which puts him well on pace to break Michael Strahan's record of 22.5.*  In fact, only four players in NFL history have had as many sacks in their first seven games as Allen has. 

*Ok, Brett Favre laid down to give Strahan the record.  I may be a die-hard Giant fan, but I'm not delusional.  Moving on...
 
Mark Gastineau had 12 sacks in his first seven games for the Jets in 1984, and his final total of 22 that season stood as the golden standard for the next 17 years.  Leonard Marshall of the Giants threatened the record in 1985, but he then went nearly a month without a sack and finished with 15.5 for that season.  Keith Millard had 12 sacks in his first six games of 1989, as a defensive tackle nonetheless, but three sacks in his last six games also kept him short of Gastineau.  Finally, Strahan's strong start in 2001 put him in sight of the record, and his 3.5 sacks of Donovan McNabb in Week 16 propelled him to the top.  (It's important to note that Reggie White had 21 sacks in 12 games in 1987.  If not for the strike which cost the league four games, Allen might be chasing his record now.) 

To pass Strahan, Allen will have to have to average a little over a sack per game for the rest of the season.  Looking at his track record, there's reason to believe that he might tail off. In his career, Allen has 30 sacks in October, 26 in November and 22 in December.  On the other hand, six of his last seven games are indoors, where he averages nearly a half sack more per game.

Ultimately, Allen's quest will come down to his performance against the left tackles he's up against, particularly the three in his division.  Chad Clifton for the Packers, Jeff Backus for the Lions, and J'Marcus Webb for the Bears are all in the bottom 10 of the league in pass blocking, according to Pro Football Focus.  In his three initial contests against them, Allen racked up six sacks.

The fleeting nature of sacks makes them a tough statistic to predict.  One bad game could derail Allen, and offenses will key in on him more as he approaches the record.  After all, it's easier for coaches to eliminate a defensive lineman with a double-team than to contain a quarterback or wide receiver with a blitz or coverage scheme.  Still, I believe that Allen will be hovering around the 20 sack mark when the Bears come to the Metrodome in the last game of the season.  Given how Mike Martz loves to pass and hates to keeps blockers in, Allen will have plenty of chances to beat Webb and catch Strahan.  Yet ultimately, I think he will finish just short.  After all, Jay Cutler doesn't strike me as the generous type.

Image found here.