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| Ten years from now, will you tell your children where you were when Tim Tebow had his first NFL start (since 2010)? |
Last week: 9-4, 6-6-1 Against the Spread (ATS)
Season: 59-31, 42-42-6 ATS
Bears at Buccaneers - When I went to an NFL game in London four years ago, I learned that many Brits are Bucs fans because they holiday in Florida during the winter. Since Tampa Bay doesn't sell out their stadium anyway, this might be the best home field advantage they'll enjoy this season.
Pick - Bucs
ATS - Bucs (+1)
Redskins at Panthers - I am SHOCKED that Rex Grossman reverted to his old turnover habits against the Eagles. You mean a quarterback who was boom or bust for 34 starts can't change overnight? Carolina has been sniffing an upset for weeks now.
Pick - Panthers
ATS - Panthers (+1)
Chargers at Jets - The Jets have been an eyesore for weeks, and yet this is the kind of game where they'd typically shock a superior opponent and turn around their season. But then I notice their 28th-ranked run defense.
Chargers at Jets - The Jets have been an eyesore for weeks, and yet this is the kind of game where they'd typically shock a superior opponent and turn around their season. But then I notice their 28th-ranked run defense.
Pick - Chargers
ATS - Chargers (-1)
Seahawks at Browns - Colt McCoy's 5.5 yards per pass attempt put him dead last in the NFL, and Peyton Hillis will probably sit out this game. The Whitehurst-Jackson quarterback debate next week might rival the Montana-Young controversy of the late '80s.
Pick - Seahawks
ATS - Seahawks (+2.5)
Texans at Titans - Who will take control of the worst division in the NFL? "Fire Gary Kubiak and promote Wade Phillips!" will set the record for most inconsequential sportstalk radio argument of the year.
Pick - Titans
ATS - Titans (-3.5)
Broncos at Dolphins - As much as I try, I do not understand the logic of Tebow Nation. They're celebrating like this is his first NFL start (he had three last year) and it's the dawn of a new era (his hold on the job is tenuous at best). Despite what they say, John Fox and John Elway are not planning Denver's future around Tim Tebow.
Pick - Broncos
ATS - Broncos (+1)
Falcons at Lions - Detroit's D-line gets after the passer, but they aren't as disciplined against the run. As I said last week, the Falcons need to give the ball to Michael Turner.
Pick - Lions
ATS - Falcons (+3.5)
Chiefs at Raiders - I'm not optimistic about Carson Palmer's future in Oakland, but Hue Jackson will keep the offense simple enough to get the Raiders safely into the bye week at 5-2.
Pick - Raiders
ATS - Raiders (-4.5)
Steelers at Cardinals - This will be one of two underwhelming Super Bowl rematches this weekend (the other being Indianapolis at New Orleans). The NFL is a fast-changing league, but it's still shocking that only four offensive starters from that 2008 team are still on the Cardinals roster.
Pick - Steelers
ATS - Steelers (-3.5)
Rams at Cowboys - Rob Ryan may not have been able to hold Tom Brady down for 60 minutes, but his defense should pummel whoever the Rams put under center.
Pick - Cowboys
ATS - Rams (+13.5)
Packers at Vikings - Loyalty is a risky virtue in the NFL. Leslie Frazier stuck his neck out to give Donovan McNabb a chance, and now the Viking head coach needs to turn things around to save his job. Let's hope he gave Christian Ponder enough time to show some progress.
Pick - Packers
ATS - Packers (-9.5)
Colts at Saints - Drew Brees has thrown a touchdown pass in 33 games straight (Johnny Unitas holds the record with 47). This game will make it 34.
Pick - Saints
ATS - Saints (-14.5)
Ravens at Jaguars - Part of it has to do with Peyton Manning's injury, and part of it is due to poor gambles by ESPN's executives, but Monday Night Football's schedule has been rough this season. We might not see two winning teams square off on Monday Night until November 28th, when the Giants visit the Saints.
Pick - Ravens
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