Saturday, December 17, 2011

My NFL Week 15 Picks

Terrell Suggs always shows up in primetime, especially when he's playing a patchwork offensive line.
Apologies for the delay this week, I was busy putting time into my Pro Bowl team, which I highly recommend taking a look at.  You can see if your favorite team was represented herehere.  For the record, I did make my Cowboys pick before last night's game was played. and

Last week: 12-4; 7-9 Against The Spread
Season: 136-72; 99-102-7 ATS

Cowboys at Buccaneers - What a gut punch for the Cowboys.  Mere minutes away from virtually clinching the NFC East, Dallas now will probably need a win in New York on New Year's Day to make the playoffs.  If they lose to the disintegrating Bucs, that game might not even matter.
Pick - Cowboys
ATS - Cowboys (-7)

Redskins at Giants - The Giants are fortunate to be alive right now.  Their habit of taking games down to the final minute means that they can win or lose against any opponent, which is why I'm not as confident about this Redskins game as you think I would be.
Pick - Giants
ATS - Redskins (+6.5)

Packers at Chiefs - Assuming that the Packers take care of business against the Chiefs and Bears (very likely, but not guaranteed), you can expect to see their season finale against the Lions flexed to Sunday night.  The regular season kicked off on a Thursday night at Lambeau Field, and it'd be fitting to end it there as the Packers try to finish 16-0.
Pick - Packers
ATS - Packers (-13.5)

Saints at Vikings - My roommate Colin and I are both facing Drew Brees in our respective fantasy league playoffs, and we agreed this afternoon that we'd be lucky if he puts up less than 30 points on the Vikings woeful secondary.
Pick - Saints
ATS - Saints (-7)

Seahawks at Bears - Jeff Hostetler, Kurt Warner and Tom Brady are a few examples of why you should trust your backup quarterback when your starter goes down.  Caleb Hanie is an example of why you should not.
Pick - Seahawks
ATS - Seahawks (+3.5)

Dolphins at Bills - If the season ended six weeks ago, Buffalo would've had a first round bye.  Now, they're mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.  Tough season for the Bills faithful, but I still like their chances at home against Miami.
Pick - Bills
ATS - Bills (-1.5)

Panthers at Texans - If not for the late-game heroics of Tim Tebow and Eli Manning, T.J. Yates would have been the big story of last week.  His game-winning touchdown pass with eight seconds left may have saved Houston's first round bye.
Pick - Texans
ATS - Texans (-6)

Titans at Colts - A few years ago, I never thought we'd see an NFL team go 16-0 or 0-16.  Now, we may see both in the same season.  I don't expect Jim Caldwell to survive this.
Pick - Titans
ATS - Titans (-6.5)

Bengals at Rams - This year's Bengals have "2010 Bucs" written all over them.  They will continue to beat up on weak teams, miss the playoffs on a tiebreaker, go into next season with unrealistic expectations, and jeopardize their coach's job while everyone wonders how Andy Dalton could regress so much in his sophomore year.
Pick - Bengals
ATS - Bengals (-6.5)

Lions at Raiders - It's a shame all eyes will be on the Patriots-Broncos game, because this late afternoon match is a great one.  The loser will take a big hit to their playoff hopes.  The Lions haven't looked dominant since they beat the Broncos in late October.  With Denarius Moore probably returning from an injury and underrated safety Louis Delmas out for the Lions, I think Oakland's passing game will make the difference at home.
Pick - Raiders
ATS - Raiders (+1)

Patriots at Broncos - The Broncos have handed out more media credentials this week than for any game in the past decade.  I've been saying for some weeks now that I don't think that the Tim Tebow-tailored offense could win a shootout with a high-scoring passing team.  If they pull out this game, then all bets are off for Denver.
Pick - Patriots
ATS - Patriots (-7.5)

Jets at Eagles - I haven't run the numbers, but I'm guessing that I'm 1-12 in picking Eagle games this season.  Philadelphia's domination of Miami and the Giants' upset of the Cowboys has given their fans just enough hope to be let down one more time this season.
Pick - Jets
ATS - Jets (+2.5)

Browns at Cardinals - I'm glad that the Browns are taking some heat for letting Colt McCoy re-enter a game with a concussion.  It's unacceptable that teams like the Eagles and Steelers have been able to skirt the NFL's concussion protocol with terms like "dirt in his face" and "concussion-like symptoms."  If the league is serious about protecting the health of its players, it needs to realize that the coaches are often the ones they need to be protected from.
Pick - Cardinals
ATS - Cardinals (-7)

Ravens at Chargers -The Ravens have struggled away from Baltimore, but Terrell Suggs is playing as well as any defender in the league.  That's bad news for a Charger offensive line that's been decimated by injuries.
Pick - Ravens
ATS - Ravens (-2.5)

Want to talk football?  Follow me on Twitter at @BostonGiant.
Have a suggestion for an article?  Email me at eternalsunshinepete@gmail.com. 

Odds courtesy of USA Today.
Image found here.

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