Friday, December 23, 2011

The Battle For New York, and My Week 16 Picks

When you're a football fan in New York, you're always in enemy territory.
If you live in an opposing team's city long enough, you meet enough annoying people along that way that you grow to resent the local fan base.  After residing in Boston for the past decade, I've heard enough "Tahm Brady is the greatest qwahterbehk evah" arguments to make my ears bleed.  That's why Eli Manning's Super Bowl XLII reenactment in November was particularly sweet for me.

Football in New York is unique, in that both Jet and Giant fans are perpetually surrounded by fans of another team.  I hated the Jets in high school, not because I disliked Vinny Testaverde or Wayne Chrebet, but because if the Jets won and Giants lost on a given weekend, I was greeted with endless trashtalk from my Jet fans friends on Monday.  My hatred for Gang Green waned after I moved to Boston, but I'd like to thank Rex Ryan for recently rekindling it.

Saturday's game has implications beyond this year's playoff picture.  Having the more established and successful franchise, Giant fans carry an air of superiority around Jet supporters.  They like to point to their Super Bowl trophies and rich tradition as something that the Jets can only dream of.  But the high horse has bucked the past two seasons.  Giants Stadium has made way for MetLife Stadium.  The Jets have two straight AFC Championship appearances while the Giants have two straight second-half collapses.  Ryan is full of bluster, but it's not hyperbole to suggest that the Jets can proclaim dominance over football in New York by crushing the Giants' playoff dreams on Saturday.  If the Giants win, then Big Blue's fans can continue to walk around like like big brother, at least until these two teams meet again in 2015 (no, preseason matchups don't count).

As a Giant fan, I do not feel good about this game.  I'm proud of Big Blue for overcoming the worst rash of preseason injuries in team history, but the fact is that Tom Coughlin's troops have not looked dominant at any point this season.  Wins over the Patriots and Cowboys were impressive, but New York needed Manning's heroics to beat even weak opponents like the Cardinals and Dolphins.  The Jets are a flawed team and Mark Sanchez is not a good quarterback, but neither are Rex Grossman, Vince Young and Charlie Whitehurst, all of whom have exploited the horrific Giants secondary this season.  I believe this game will come down to who has the final possession.  If Manning does, I'm confident that he can lead a game-winning drive.  If Sanchez does, then I'm certain that the Giants defense won't stop him.

Pick - Jets
Against the Spread - Jets (-3)

Last week: 8-8; 8-7-1 Against The Spread
Season: 144-80; 107-109-8 ATS

Raiders at Chiefs - Don't give Romeo Crennel too much credit for starting Kyle Orton over Tyler Palko.  Todd Haley would have done the same thing if Orton hadn't fractured his finger in his first snap for Kansas City two weeks earlier.
Pick - Raiders
ATS - Raiders (+2.5)

Broncos at Bills - We may see Tim Tebow in primetime next Sunday night if Denver doesn't clinch the division this week.
Pick - Broncos
ATS - Broncos (-2.5)

Jaguars at Titans - Matt Hasselbeck needs to start as long as he's healthy and the Titans are still mathematically alive.  But if Tennessee loses this week, Mike Munchak has to give the reins to Jake Locker.
Pick - Jaguars
ATS - Jaguars (+7.5)

Cardinals at Bengals - I think the Jets will make the playoffs even if they lose this week, because I can't see the Bengals sweeping their last two games against Arizona and Baltimore.
Pick -Cardinals
ATS - Cardinals (+4)

Dolphins at Patriots - I learned this week that legendary coach Tom Landry holds the NFL record with 20 consecutive winning seasons.  He still has a decade to go, but I could see Bill Belichick breaking that mark.
Pick - Patriots
ATS - Patriots (-9.5)

Browns at Ravens - The Texans' loss last night may have gift-wrapped a bye for the Ravens, as long as they don't fall behind Pittsburgh.
Pick - Ravens
ATS - Browns (+12.5)

Vikings at Redskins - I tweeted this after last night's Colts win, but the Vikings would lose the tiebreaker for the No. 1 pick if they finish with the same record as Indianapolis.
Pick - Redskins
ATS - Vikings (+6.5)

Buccaneers at Panthers - The least-intriguing game of the week, unless you're fascinated by Raheem Morris' increasingly futile attempts to keep his job.
Pick - Panthers
ATS - Panthers (-7.5)

Rams at Steelers - I'm getting ahead of myself here, but say Pittsburgh plays and beats the Broncos in the first round of the playoffs.  And say the Jets play and upset the Texans in their Wild Card game.  Then what would the AFC Divisional Round look like?  Jets at Patriots, Steelers at Ravens.  Can't wait.
Pick - Steelers
ATS - Steelers (-14)

Chargers at Lions - I've been critical of Matthew Stafford because Calvin Johnson makes him look a lot better than he really is.  But without Stafford's late comebacks at Minnesota, Dallas and Oakland, the Lions would not be on their way to their first postseason in 12 years.
Pick - Chargers
ATS - Chargers (+2.5)

49ers at Seahawks - Clinching a bye is bigger for the 49ers than most teams.  San Francisco has a much better chance against the Saints on its own turf than down in New Orleans.
Pick - 49ers
ATS - 49ers (-2)

Eagles at Cowboys - As Ross Tucker pointed out yesterday on NFL Radio, this 4pm game turns from a crucial showdown to a meaningless exhibition if the Giants beat the Jets earlier in the afternoon.  As crazy as this seemed after their Thursday Night loss to Seattle three weeks ago, I like the Eagles' chances to win the NFC East.
Pick - Eagles
ATS - Eagles (+2)

Bears at Packers - The Bears tried to knock Green Bay out of the playoffs in Week 17 last year.  I expect Aaron Rodgers to succeed where Jay Cutler failed.
Pick - Packers
ATS - Packers (-12.5)

Merry Christmas everyone, and happy football.

Want to talk football?  Follow me on Twitter at @BostonGiant.
Have a suggestion for an article?  Email me at eternalsunshinepete@gmail.com.

Odds courtesy of USA Today.
Image found here.

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