My NFL Week 14 Picks

Say it with me, Raheem: 'They are who we thought they were.'

The Steelers took care of business last night, though not by as large a margin as I thought they would.  Ben Roethlisberger limped back onto the field because he knows that, at this time of year, every play counts.  And with just four games left for me to get above .500 against the spread, every pick counts.

Last week: 11-5; 9-7 Against The Spread

Season: 124-68; 92-93-7 ATS

Colts at Ravens - In 2007, the Ravens nearly upset the undefeated Patriots on Monday Night Football.  Two weeks later, they lost to the 0-13 Miami Dolphins.  With Pittsburgh hot on their heels, I can't fathom Baltimore having a letdown at home against the winless Colts.

Pick - Ravens

ATS - Colts (+16.5)

Texans at Bengals - If you ever need to know how much a team's schedule factors into their success, just look at the 2011 Bengals.  They are 6-0 against teams that currently have a losing record, and 1-5 against teams with a winning record.

Pick - Texans

ATS - Texans (+3)

Raiders at Packers - Only the Patriots are giving up more yards than Dom Capers' defense, but only the 49ers are causing more turnovers.  It's easier to play this boom-or-bust style when your quarterback is putting up video game numbers. 

Pick - Packers

ATS - Raiders (+11)

Chiefs at Jets - The Jets are in a four-way tie for the final wild card in the AFC and have three tricky games to end their season.  That makes this a must-win.  Tyler Palko has one touchdown, six interceptions, and 22 points in his three starts for Kansas City.

Pick - Jets

ATS - Jets (-10.5)

Vikings at Lions - If not for a huge second-half comeback versus the Panthers, Detroit would have a four-game losing streak right now.  Looks like a visit from backup QB Joe Webb is just what the doctor ordered.

Pick - Lions

ATS - Lions (-10)

Saints at Titans - I give a lot of credit to the Titans.  If you told me in August that Chris Johnson was going to have the worst season of his career, I would've predicted Tennessee to finish 4-12.  Instead, they're right in the thick of the playoff race.  If they don't make the postseason, they'll sorely regret their Week 1 loss to Luke McCown and the Jaguars.

Pick - Saints

ATS - Saints (-3.5)

Eagles at Dolphins - After last week's loss to the Seahawks, LeSean McCoy said "They're a good team, but we're far, far better. Way more talent. We played poorly today."  No quote better defines the 2011 Eagles.  Even at 4-8, they think they should have won based on talent alone.  I'm done being fooled by this team.

Pick - Dolphins

ATS - Dolphins (-3)

Patriots at Redskins - The old "defense wins championships" mantra will truly be tested this season.  New England, Green Bay, and New Orleans are all in the bottom six in the league in yards allowed, yet all are among the handful of teams favored to win the Super Bowl.

Pick - Patriots

ATS - Patriots (-8)

Falcons at Panthers - Carolina can break a lot of hearts this month.  After driving a nail into Tampa Bay's coffin last week, they play Atlanta, Houston and New Orleans in their final four games.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them win two of those contests.

Pick - Panthers

ATS - Panthers (+3)

Buccaneers at Jaguars - Earlier this season, Tampa Bay coach Raheem Morris blamed the schedule for his team's disappointing season.  In last week's loss, he banished a player to the locker room after a dumb penalty.  He's one solid post-game rant away from hitting the "I've lost control of my team" trifecta.

Pick -Buccaneers

ATS - Buccaneers (-2)

49ers at Cardinals - When I outlined my hypothetical NFL BCS system this week, I mentioned that the 49ers would have to win out to clinch the second-best record in the league.  With three games against the NFC West and an injured Ben Roethlisberger coming to town next week, San Francisco could easily finish 14-2.

Pick - 49ers

ATS - 49ers (-3.5) 

Bears at Broncos - I'm all aboard the Tebow train until it inevitably goes off the tracks.  Let it ride!

Pick - Broncos

ATS - Broncos (-3.5)

Bills at Chargers - San Diego will win this game just to sucker the pundits into believing that they can make another late-December playoff push.  Barring a complete collapse by Denver, that won't happen.

Pick - Chargers

ATS - Chargers (-7)

Giants at Cowboys - I've already instructed my roommates to hide all sharp objects while I'm watching this game.  Believe it or not, the Giants can still make the playoffs even if they lose (Dallas would then have to lose to Philadelphia), but for all intents and purposes this is a playoff game for New York.  The NFC East seems destined to come down to that final game in the Meadowlands.
Pick - Giants

ATS - Giants (+3.5)

Come back Monday to see my pick for the Rams-Seahawks game.  Happy football everyone.

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 Image found here.