The Cowboys and Giants: A Fitting Finale, and My Week 17 Picks

The Giants and Cowboys have been equally thrilling and heartbreaking this season.

Tonight's season finale will be a fitting end to a surprising and maddening season for the NFC East.  When the season started, the Eagles' big August moves made the division title seem like a mere formality on the road to a possible championship, until Philadelphia re-set the bar for late-game collapses.  When October arrived, the 3-1 Redskins looked like a surprise contender, until they crashed to earth with a six-game losing streak.  And so amidst the rubble of a division that was once the toughest in the league, only Dallas and New York remain standing for a shot at a home playoff game.

The 2011 Cowboys and Giants have been strikingly similar in their ability to raise and crush the hopes of their fans this season.  Both teams looked lost in the offseason, as Dallas added little in free agency and the Giants lost fan favorites Kevin Boss and Steve Smith.  But over the months that followed, Dallas and New York each showed that they could beat, or lose to, any team in the league.  Eli Manning has had six fourth quarter game-winning drives, while Tony Romo has had four of his own.  DeMarcus Ware and Jason Pierre-Paul are Defensive Player of the Year candidates, but their respective units have lost to the likes of Charlie Whitehurst, Mark Sanchez, Rex Grossman and John Skelton. The Cowboy and Giant offenses wouldn't have survived injuries to Felix Jones, Miles Austin and Mario Manningham without breakthroughs from DeMarco Murray, Laurent Robinson and Victor Cruz.

The Giants peaked in early November, when they beat the Patriots in Foxboro in a game that looked shockingly similar to Super Bowl XLII.  But four weeks later, they hit a season low after a humiliating loss in New Orleans on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys' high point came on Thanksgiving, when a last-second field goal gave them the NFC East lead. Two weeks later, they would have clinched the NFC East on a pass to a wide open Austin. Instead, Romo misfired, allowing the Giants to jump back into the division race.

For a few weeks now, it's seemed like the NFC East was destined to be decided in this game. If the Cowboys win, it'll be because the Giants secondary will have once again failed to keep up with a good receiving corps. If the Giants win, it'll be because the New York running game and pass rush are finally living up to their high standards. I think that losing left guard Montrae Holland will hurt the Cowboys, especially on 3rd and long situations when Pierre-Paul, Osi Umenyiora and a rejuvenated Justin Tuck rush from their NASCAR package. Ultimately, I believe that will make the difference tonight.

Pick - Giants

Against The Spread - Giants (-3)

Last week: 9-7, 9-6-1 Against The Spread

Season: 153-87; 116-115-9 ATS

This week, I'm grouping my picks by the playoff race that they're affecting. 

MEANINGLESS GAMES

Redskins at Eagles - In the last three weeks, Andy Reid has proven that his team has not given up on him.  To those who are calling for Reid's head, I ask: what coaching candidate do you think would do a better job than Reid has done?

Pick - Eagles

ATS - Eagles (-8.5)

Bears at Vikings - Last year, Wes Welker impressed us all with his quick recovery from a torn ACL.  Adrian Peterson has an equally strong work ethic, but there's a difference between a receiver dodging open field hits and a running back grinding between the tackles, where defenders are constantly diving at his legs.  I fear that the Peterson we're used to won't be around for the first half of the 2012 season.

Pick - Bears

ATS - Bears (+1)

Seahawks at Cardinals - If the Colts draft Andrew Luck and trade Peyton Manning, they won't keep him in the AFC, where he can kick their ass for the rest of his career. The Redskins are an obvious landing spot for him, but don't rule out the Seahawks, who could be a contender in the NFC if they can get a good quarterback.

Pick - Seahawks

ATS - Seahawks (+3)

LOOKING FOR LUCK

Colts at Jaguars -Many Indianapolis fans are rooting for Andrew Luck, but the Colt veterans are determined to disappoint them.  Veterans like Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis and Dallas Clark want Peyton Manning to return for a few final Super Bowl runs.  Drafting Luck means a new coach and a rebuilding effort that they may not be a part of.

Pick - Colts

ATS - Colts (+4)

49ers at Rams - As I said last week, the 49ers need this win, not just to get the bye, but to ensure that they won't have to travel to New Orleans in the divisional round.  The Rams have been shut out twice in the past four weeks and look like a team that has given up on their lame duck coach.

Pick - 49ers

ATS - 49ers (-10.5)

NFC PLAYOFF SEEDINGS

Panthers at Saints - If the 49ers are blowing out the Rams at halftime, then the Saints' chance at a bye disappears and this game quickly becomes meaningless.  Nevertheless, Sean Payton will keep Drew Brees in to ensure that Tom Brady doesn't catch him for the single season passing record.

Pick - Saints

ATS - Panthers (+9)

Lions at Packers - Although the Lions have already clinched a playoff berth, they need this game to guarantee that they travel to MetLife or Cowboys Stadium next week instead of the Superdome.  It'd be a big disappointment if they can't beat a Green Bay squad that will be sitting Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews, and possibly Aaron Rodgers.

Pick - Lions

ATS - Lions (-4)

Buccaneers at Falcons - If Detroit wins in its 1pm game, then this 4:15pm game becomes meaningless and Atlanta can sit many of its starters in preparation for its first playoff game, probably in New Orleans.  The Bucs have a nine game losing streak, and six of those losses have been by double-digits.

Pick - Falcons

ATS - Falcons (-11)

AFC BYES

Bills at Patriots - A lot has changed since the Bills came back from a 21-point deficit to beat the Patriots in Week Three.  A win would give the Patriots home field advantage in the AFC playoffs for the fourth time in Bill Belichick's 12 years as head coach.

Pick - Patriots

ATS - Bills (+10.5)

Steelers at Browns - If this game becomes a blowout, then many Steeler fans will turn their eyes to the second half of the Ravens and Bengals game.  If Baltimore wins, then Pittsburgh will play in Denver or Oakland next week.  If Cincinnati wins, then the Steelers get a bye and a home game in the divisional round.

Pick - Steelers

ATS - Steelers (-7)

Ravens at Bengals - Without Pro Bowl left guard Marshall Yanda, Baltimore's interior line could struggle to contain should-be Pro Bowler Geno Atkins.  If Anquan Boldin doesn't make a surprising return, then the Cincinnati secondary can further focus on deep threat Torrey Smith, who burned them for 165 yards and a touchdown in these two teams' first meeting.  However, I haven't been a believer in the Bengals all year because they've beaten up on a weak schedule and have fallen flat against tougher competition.  I don't trust Andy Dalton, who threw three interceptions against Baltimore in Week 11, to rise to the occasion.

Pick - Ravens

ATS - Ravens (-2)

AFC BERTHS UP FOR GRABS

Titans at Texans - Tennessee would have already clinched a playoff berth if it had beaten Luke McCown's Jaguars in the first week of the season and Dan Orlovsky's Colts two weeks ago.  With Andre Johnson returning for Houston, I think this will be the requisite Week 17 game where a team with nothing to play for beats a team with everything to play for.

Pick - Texans

ATS - Texans (+1.5)

Jets at Dolphins - You may have seen my thoughts this week about Darelle Revis' impeccable history of penalties, or lack thereof.  Revis is one of the best cover corners I've seen and is on the path to the Hall of Fame, but his physical style makes it hard for me to believe that he hasn't interfered with a single receiver since 2007.  Keep your eyes on Revis and Brandon Marshall, but don't miss Nick Mangold's battle with Miami nose tackle Paul Soliai when the Jets have the ball.  I like New York to win this one because they have the advantage in both of those matchups.

Pick - Jets

ATS - Jets (-3)

Chiefs at Broncos - You have to love how quickly and harshly we pass judgment in today's NFL.  Tim Tebow was dominating headlines two weeks ago.  But a loss to the best team in the AFC and a bad day in chilly Buffalo, and analysts are wondering if Denver should draft a quarterback in the first round.  The Chiefs are exactly the kind of low-scoring, physical opponent that Denver is designed to beat.

Pick - Broncos

ATS - Broncos (-3)

Chargers at Raiders - Nearly two months ago, the Raiders upset the Chargers in the first Thursday night game of the season.  That was the last time that Carson Palmer had his full stable of receivers, until today.  Also in that game, Kamerion Wimbley racked up four sacks against San Diego's backup left tackle, Brandyn Dombrowski.  The Chargers have since addressed that spot with free agent Jared Gaither, but I expect Oakland's pass rush to still harass Philip Rivers and carry the Raiders into the playoffs for the first time in a decade.

Pick - Raiders

ATS - Raiders (-3)

So to recap, here is my prediction for how the playoff dust will settle:

Number One Draft Pick - Rams

AFC Byes - Patriots and Ravens

AFC Wild Card Round -Raiders at Texans, Steelers at Broncos

NFC Byes - Packers and 49ers

NFC Wild Card Round - Falcons at Saints, Lions at Giants

I hope your hangovers pass in time for you to enjoy a very exciting finish to the season.  Happy New Year, and happy football.

Want to talk football?  Follow me on Twitter at @BostonGiant.

Have a suggestion for an article?  Email me at eternalsunshinepete@gmail.com.

Odds courtesy of USA Today.
Image found here.