Thursday, December 8, 2011

Any Given Thursday? My Pick For Browns-Steelers

It's been tough sledding for Colt McCoy and the Browns this year.
The NFL's Thursday Night schedule has actually been more impressive than its Monday Night slate this season.  But with the Browns traveling to Pittsburgh tonight, will we see our first Thursday night snoozefest?  Not so fast.

Two years ago, Pittsburgh was the defending Super Bowl champion and had just suffered an inexcusable loss to the 3-8 Oakland Raiders.  When they traveled to Cleveland in Week 14 for a Thursday night game against the 1-11 Browns, the Steelers were 6-6 and fighting for the playoffs.  Yet instead of getting a win they desperately needed, Ben Roethlisberger was sacked eight times in a 13-6 Browns upset.  The Steelers won their final three games, but the Cleveland loss left them at 9-7 and out of the postseason.

Does that mean I'm going with the Browns to repeat history tonight?  Sadly, I can't see this one being close.  Cleveland has given up fewer pass yards than any other team this year, but that's only because they've faced the second-fewest pass attempts in the league.  Their opponents find it too easy to exploit the Browns' 31st-ranked run defense.  Pittsburgh's rushing attack has been bad by Steeler standards, but Rashard Mendenhall will have plenty of room to run tonight.

Back in April, I raved about Cleveland's draft trade with Atlanta, and I think the extra picks they grabbed will pay dividends next season.  But the downside of that deal is that Colt McCoy was left with Greg Little as his top receiving target instead of Julio Jones.  Throw in Peyton Hillis' oft-injured hamstring/hip/bank account, and the Cleveland offense has been fighting an uphill battle all season.  I still believe that McCoy can succeed in the West Coast offense, but not even a strong finish in these final four games will keep the Browns from drafting another quarterback in April.

Pick - Steelers
Against the Spread  - Steelers (-14)

Odds courtesy of USA Today.
Image found here.

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