Wednesday, November 9, 2011

KID Week 10 Power Rankings - Breaking Down Success, Position-By-Position

Each year, eleven of my best friends and I participate in a keeper fantasy football league, dubbed "Keeper? I Don't Even Like Her!" (KID, for short).  These power rankings are for them.

Earlier this week, Will asked me if there was a coincidence that most of the top teams in our league have very good quarterbacks.  That gave me an idea.  Is there a specific position that ties directly to success?  For example, is it better to have a top QB, or a strong set of RBs?  Would you rather have a solid WR corps, or an elite TE?  What about a top defense?

To answer this question, I went back to our games and charted how many of your points came from each of your starting positions, and how much of an advantage, or disadvantage, they've given you against your opponents.

TEAM QB RB WR TE DEF TOTAL QB +/- RB +/- WR +/- TE +/- DEF +/- TOTAL +/-
Beast Mode 285 386 276 53 78 1079 101 128 73 (9) (23) 269
Rice and Breesy 249 279 371 63 95 1056 70 (4) 142 (24) 11 195
A Few Good Chicks 172 327 292 108 119 1018 (49) 48 (14) 22 37 44
Room for Regret 232 332 226 70 121 981 19 107 7 17 2 151
Dirty Mike & The Boys 184 237 299 77 70 867 (9) (131) 61 13 (6) (72)
Doctor Asshole 216 264 233 67 66 846 (1) (13) (5) 8 (3) (14)
Pudgy Pelican 137 257 280 116 39 830 (80) 15 (27) 76 (63) (78)
Father Superior 215 243 208 58 105 828 8 (53) (10) 1 (3) (58)
Aluminum Pint 185 211 208 65 110 780 (6) (49) (43) (4) 50 (53)
The Mighty Kegs 173 283 167 61 82 766 (14) 62 (84) (14) (8) (58)
Lambs_of_Combat! 153 166 277 27 113 735 (44) (85) 34 (41) 44 (92)
Hostile Takeover 160 242 213 23 67 705 5 (25) (132) (44) (38) (234)

Let's take a look at each position:

- Unlike in real football, defenses don't win championships in fantasy.  Scott and Dave have both had a significant advantage over their opponents here, and yet they're two of the lowest-scoring teams in the league.  There's a reason you don't reach for defenses in the draft.

- Every draft, somewhere around the fourth round, Antonio Gates beckons like a mythological football Siren.  Eventually, the allure of having a great producer at a weak position is too powerful, and some owner succumbs to taking a top TE instead of a middling RB or WR.  I don't decry that strategy, but you should note that I had nearly double the points from my tight end than some other owners, and yet still am in the bottom half of the league.

- There a little more correlation between position and overall performance as we move to WRs.  Of the six teams with upper-tier receiving corps, four of them are on track to make the playoffs.  But Hunt's team has gotten mediocre production from his receivers and is still at the top of the standings.

- QBs are putting up bigger stats than ever before, and that is reflected in our league.  Hunt, Sumit, and Kevin are at the top of the standings, and it'll come as no surprise that they have Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady.  However, Will has had the fourth worst QB output, yet is right with them in total points.

- As much as it's become a passing league, it seems that successful fantasy teams are still built on their RBs.  Will, Sumit, Kevin and Hunt are in a tier to themselves, and they're all in the top five at RB production.  The anomaly is Mike, who has the fourth highest RB point but is 10th in overall points, primarily because he's below-average at every other position.

Here are some other observations:

- There are only four teams who have scored more points this season than their opponents.  It's a sign of the big gap between the top teams and the rest of the league.

- Ultimately, it was my failure to get a consistent QB that doomed me.  I am last in the league at that position and it's given my opponents a nine-point advantage each week.

- Sumit's WR production is off the charts.  He has 70 more points from his group than any other team, and is picking up 16 points on his opponent each week from his receivers.

- Erik's team (formerly Ward's) has had some awful luck at WR.  His receivers have performed decently, yet he is still losing 15 points per week at that position.

- Mike has had the lowest WR output by far, which makes sense because he completely ignored them in the draft.

- Even if you don't have a great TE, you better have a decent one.  Scott and Erik's tight ends have been the worst by far, and they are the two lowest total point producers.

 As always, fantasy teams this year need a strong RB foundation to be successful.  A high-producing QB who can put up big stats every week is important, as are WRs that can bring some stability.  TEs and DEFs are good to have, but not necessary to win a championship.

Rankings 

1. Beast Mode (Last week's rank: 1) 8-1, 1079 points - Hunt won't slow down until Aaron Rodgers does. 
2. Rice and Breesy (2) 7-2, 1056 points - If Drew Brees does as well as I think he will, Sumit has a good chance for a repeat championship. 
3. Room For Regret (3) 6-3, 981 points - Two straight losses has put Kevin's bye in jeopardy.
4. A Few Good Chicks (5) 4-5, 1018 points - Will's points finally translated to a win.
5. Dirty Mike & The Boys (4) 5-4, 867 points - Colin has a good record, but he's only surpassed 89 points once in the past month.
6. Father Superior (6) 4-5, 828 points - Nick is falling behind as every other contender trades to improve their team.
7. Doctor Asshole (8) 4-5, 846 points - Good win by Jason with Cam Newton on a bye. 
8. The Mighty Kegs (9) 4-5, 766 points - Mike is still in this because half the league is at 4-5. 
9. Aluminum Pint (7) 4-5, 846 points - After a 3-1 start, Dave has lost four of his last five games. 
10. Lambs_of_Combat (10) 4-5, 735 points - Scott won't win any playoff tiebreakers with the second lowest point total in the league. 
11. The Pudgy Pelican (11) Yours Truly, 2-7, 830 points - Pudgy Pelican has become a ghost town.  I actually started D.J. Ware last week. 
12. Hostile Takeover (12) 2-7, 705 points - Erik, what happened to winning out?

Image found here.

5 comments:

  1. Nice work, but I hate that you hate my team and my draft strategy. I think that's born out of your jealousy for my real life situation.

    Love,
    Stratis

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  2. wait was that a comment from Kac but signed by stratis. What is going on?

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. You sneaky Kevin!
    http://youtu.be/ct3KnfalfEI?t=51s

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  5. Not sure I understand that comment KAC

    ReplyDelete