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| Unlike every other rankings you've seen, the Packers are not No. 1 here. |
Every team has at least half of their schedule under their belts, so this is a fitting time for my first Power Rankings column. You've probably seen dozens of these out there, but mine comes with a little twist. Rather than determining who has performed the best up to this point of the season, I'm ranking the teams based on how good their chances are of making the playoffs.
For example, I think that the Patriots would beat the Texans if they played on a neutral field tomorrow, but Houston is a better bet to make the postseason in the weak AFC South than New England is in the tough AFC East. Based on their record, their division, and their remaining schedule, I've analyze which teams have the best chance to play into January. Without further ado, here are my Midseason Power Rankings.
SUCK FOR LUCK
32. Indianapolis Colts - I don't care how promising Andrew Luck looks, no self-respecting fan wants to see their team go winless. Two games against Jacksonville and one against Tennessee might be Jim Caldwell's only opportunity to avoid 0-16 infamy.
PLAYING OUT THE STRETCH
31. Miami Dolphins - Tony Sparano deserves credit for keeping his team motivated in what has become his lame duck season. But playing in the strong AFC East gives them only two remaining games against opponents under .500.
28-30. Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, St. Louis Rams - Misery loves company. If they didn't have each other, each one of these teams could be challenging the Colts for the worst record in the league.
27. Washington Redskins - When I watched them play the Bills, I wondered if the Redskins would win another game this season. Seeing John Beck check down to Roy Helu 17 times against the 49ers removed all doubt.
26. Cleveland Browns - I really wish Colt McCoy hadn't regressed this season, because Cleveland has the young talent, draft picks, and strong front office leadership to turn their fortunes around. But they can't go anywhere without a franchise quarterback.
REBUILDING SPOILERS
25. Jacksonville Jaguars - Blaine Gabbert is the weakest of the rookie QBs, but Jacksonville has the running game and defense to pull off some upsets.
24. Minnesota Vikings - Viking fans have two reasons to keep watching their team: Christian Ponder's development and Jared Allen's pursuit of the sack record.
23. Carolina Panthers - They can't close out games, so they're 2-6. They have Cam Newton, so they could finish 7-9.
FADING FAST
22. Kansas City Chiefs - Give the Chiefs credit for leaping back into the playoff hunt after an 0-3 start, but they could not afford to lose to the Dolphins this past week. A five game stretch against the Patriots, Steelers, Bears, Jets and Packers will knock them back into mediocrity.
21. Tennessee Titans - Despite Mike Munchak's insistence to the contrary, the Jake Locker era is nearly upon us. If the Titans go 1-2 against the Panthers, Falcons, and Buccaneers, there's little reason not to start the rookie.
ALSO-RANS IN ANY OTHER DIVISION
20. Denver Broncos - Tim Tebow's zone-read spread offense can't win consistently against good teams, but I'm glad that the Broncos are at least giving it a chance.
19. Oakland Raiders - I watched the replay of the Raiders' loss to the Broncos and saw Carson Palmer throw the ball much better than I thought he would. But he can't help Oakland's 27th-ranked defense.
18. San Diego Chargers - Once again, San Diego's weak division lets it putz around for half a season and still be in the playoff hunt. Put the Chargers in the AFC North for the past seven years, and they'd have one playoff appearance instead of five.
WILD CARD HOPEFULS
17. Cincinnati Bengals - If the playoffs started today, Cincinnati would be the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but are these Bengals paper tigers? They have the 4th ranked defense in the league, but that's because they've played six of the seven worst offenses in the league. The Bengals have done a lot better than I ever expected, but their bubble will burst when they finally face the Steelers and Ravens.
16. Philadelphia Eagles - Anyone who picked these guys to win the Super Bowl is clearly a moron. Their loss to the Bears virtually eliminates them from the NFC East race, but I still won't count them out of the playoff hunt. They have the 3rd best offense in the league, the 12th best defense, and a manageable schedule left.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - When all is said and done, the Buccaneers may have had the toughest schedule in the league this year. Six of their games have been against teams with a winning record, and Jacksonville might be the only "easy" opponent they have left on their calendar.
14. Chicago Bears - I've heard many a friend incredulously ask "how did Chicago get a bye last year?" The same way they got a win in Philadelphia Monday night, Pinky: with a gutsy quarterback and a relentlessly swarming defense. They have a friendly schedule, and should be favored in seven of their eight remaining games.
DIVISION CONTENDERS
13. Detroit Lions - Were we too quick to print Detroit's playoff tickets after their 5-0 start? Teams have figured out that there's not much more to the Lions offense beyond Calvin Johnson. Depending on the outcome of this Sunday's game against the Bears, they could either put a stranglehold on a Wild Card spot or fall back to the pack.
12. Dallas Cowboys - Dallas has not looked like a playoff team, but have you seen their schedule for the next four weeks? With games against Buffalo, Washington, Miami and Arizona, they can easily be 7-5 when the Giants come to town.
11. Buffalo Bills - Buffalo's hot start is becoming a distant memory, and now they've lost defensive tackle Kyle Williams for the season. Two remaining games against the Dolphins help, but Buffalo's playoff hopes may come down to whether they can beat the Jets in New York on Thanksgiving weekend.
10. Atlanta Falcons - If they can sweep their three-game home stretch against the Saints, Titans and Vikings, the Falcons will be 8-3 and a playoff favorite.
9. New York Jets - At least one Wild Card will go to the AFC North and none will go to the South or West, so it'll be a three-way race between New York, Buffalo, and New England for two playoff spots. If the Jets can beat the Patriots and Bills in the next three weeks, then they'll be the frontrunners to win the AFC East.
8. New York Giants - The Giants' tough schedule does not bode well for a team that's known for its second-half collapses. However, if New York can win its final four division games (three of them at home) then it will clinch the NFC East.
7. New Orleans Saints - New Orleans will have two shots at Atlanta to seize the NFC South. Lucky for us, we'll see that race decided in Week 16 on Monday Night Football.
6. New England Patriots - Even if New England loses in New York this Sunday, I can't see them missing the playoffs. Not with games against the Chiefs, Colts, Redskins, Broncos and Dolphins remaining.
LOCK IT IN
5. Pittsburgh Steelers - The fact that the AFC North currently has three teams with six wins says less about the talent of its teams and more about the weakness of its schedules. Because they face the AFC South and NFC West, possibly the two worst divisions in football, the Steelers should easily get to 11 wins.
4. Baltimore Ravens - See above. Baltimore still plays Seattle, Indianapolis, and Cleveland twice. Anything short of a bye should be a disappointment for them.
3. Green Bay Packers - Green Bay is 8-0, but they're not going undefeated when their defense is third-worst in the league. Because of the Lions and Bears, their hold on their division is a bit more tenuous than the top two teams on this list.
2. Houston Texans - Peyton Manning has always been the biggest obstacle between Houston and the playoffs. Without him, the Texans have no competition in the AFC South and are cruising toward a bye. They're 3-0 in their division and have only two opponents left that are currently above .500.
1. San Francisco 49ers - No one is in a better position right now than the San Francisco 49ers, who are a sure-fire bet to get a first-round bye. They could lose to the Giants and Ravens in the next 11 days and still finish with 12 wins, such is the benefit of being a good team in the putrid NFC West. For the first time in nine years, San Francisco will be in the playoffs. Count on it.
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