Why The Green Bay Packers Won't Go Undefeated

Many forget Kent Graham and Gary Brown, but the 1998 Broncos never will.

Last night's Monday Night Football game left me with two observations: 1) Jared Allen really likes celebrating tackles when his team is down by three touchdowns, and 2) I wonder how anyone is going to beat the Packers this season.  I've already discussed Allen here.  As for Green Bay, as improbable as it seems right now, they will be beaten.  And as history indicates, it might not take a strong team to do it.

Look at their schedule, and you can't find a bad matchup for the Packers.  The Buccaneers and Lions are reeling.  The Giants' secondary has been ravaged by injury this season.  The Raiders and Chiefs have been inconsistent in a weak division, and the Bears have lost three straight to Green Bay.  Nevertheless, Green Bay will lose to one of them.

There have been 12 teams that have started 10-0 since the undefeated 1972 Dolphins.  Let's take a look at who they eventually lost to, how that opponent entered the game, and where that underdog went afterwards:

Team	Start	First Loss	Streak	Playoffs
1975 Vikings	10-0	Redskins (6-4)	2 L	N
1984 Dolphins	11-0	Chargers (5-6)	1 L	N
1985 Bears	12-0	Dolphins (8-4)	2 W	Y
1990 Giants	10-0	Eagles (6-4)	4 W	Y
1990 49ers	10-0	Rams (3-7)	2 L	N
1991 Redskins	11-0	Cowboys (6-5)	2 L	Y
1998 Broncos	13-0	Giants (5-8)	1 W	N
2005 Colts	13-0	Chargers (8-5)	1 L	N
2007 Patriots	16-0	none	-	-
2008 Titans	10-0	Jets (7-3)	4 W	N
2009 Saints	13-0	Cowboys (8-5)	2 L	Y
2010 Colts	14-0	Jets (7-7)	1 L	Y

As you can see, the opponents that toppled the undefeated teams were just as much David as they were Goliath.  Four of the 11 didn't have a winning record.  Seven of them were coming off a loss, some two losses.  After the big upset, six of the giant killers still didn't make the playoffs.  Only the 1985 Dolphins and 2010 Jets made their Conference Championship Game.

How could these undefeated juggernauts lose to such weak competition?  Was it nerves?  Overconfidence?  You tell me.

In 1990, the Giants and 49ers were both 10-0 and were scheduled to play on Monday Night Football in Week 13.  It was a football fan's dream, two 11-0 teams in a primetime game for the ages.  Instead, New York and San Francisco both lost to division rivals the week before to fall to 10-1.

In 1985, Dan Marino defeated the 12-0 Chicago Bears in Miami on Monday Night Football, much to the delight of his 1972 Dolphin-brethren.  Thirteen years later, John Elway's Broncos were 13-0, defending champions and scheduled for a destiny-laced Week 16 Monday Night game in Miami.  The storylines wrote themselves.  Yet one week before its date with Marino, Denver was felled by the not-so-mighty Kent Graham of the 5-8 Giants.

Even the 2007 Patriots, the only team to complete a 16-0 regular season, had their closest call, not against the Steelers or Giants, but versus the 4-7 Ravens.  New England was on the verge of defeat three times before they pulled out a victory over the 20-point underdogs.  And that New England team was much more impressive than this year's Packers.

Call it overconfidence or call it pressure, history shows us that undefeated teams can be tripped up by even the meekest opponents.  Right now, it's hard to imagine the Packers losing, especially after a performance like last night's.  But they will.  Maybe the Lions will knock Aaron Rodgers out, as they did last season.  Perhaps the winds of MetLife Stadium will cripple the Packer passing game.  Or maybe Carson Palmer and Darren McFadden will torch Dom Capers' defense, who is still ranked 28th in the league even after last night.  But if Green Bay makes it to 13-0, they better not look ahead to their Christmas game against Chicago.  Not when they have to get past Tyler Palko and the 5-8 Kansas City Chiefs first.

Image found here.