Thursday Night Pick - Jets at Broncos

You won't see a lot of Darelle Revis in tonight's game, but his impact will be no less important.

If you're like most fans and enjoy big plays and lead changes, then you might be turned off by tonight's Jets-Broncos game.  After another tough outing for Mark Sanchez against the Patriots, New York may be apt to return to its physical rushing nature.  And Denver has fully embraced the Tim Tebow experiment, running a whopping 55 times last week.  But I'll be glued to the TV to see how Rex Ryan, one of the best defensive minds in the game, attempts to hogtie the old-fashioned read option offense that the Broncos have unleashed upon the NFL.

I looked back at the passes Tebow threw last week against the Chiefs.  It didn't take long, as there were only eight of them.  Three were deep balls designed to attack the safeties cheating against the run, but Tebow's fluttered throws allowed the defenders to recover.  Two other incomplete attempts were a dropped pitch and a well-covered checkdown.  Another was a swing pass that the slot receiver took for an extra 13 yards, and another was an out pattern that Tebow misfired straight into the dirt.  Finally, the Bronco quarterback threw an on-target deep ball for a 57-yard, game-clinching touchdown.  What impressed me about that last pass was that it came on 3rd and 10 and involved no run fakes.  Tebow simply took the shotgun snap, surveyed the pass defense, and out-threw the safety who did an awful job of providing support on that side.  It was no gimmick or option, just a regular old shotgun passing play.

Unfortunately for Denver, I don't think Tebow will have as much success against the Jets this week.  Many believe that Darelle Revis will have little impact on this game because the Broncos don't pass, but I strongly disagree.  The Chiefs were continually gashed by the Denver run game because they often played Cover 2 (two safeties deep) to provide help for their cornerbacks.  Revis will not need any help to shut down whichever Bronco receiver he lines up against.  That will allow one safety to shade to Antonio Cromartie's side, and the other safety to come down as an eighth man in the box.  Buddy Ryan's legendary 46 Defense is rarely used anymore because offenses spread the field with multiple receivers and force defenders to cover sideline to sideline.  However, it could be the perfect gameplan for his son Rex to use against the more compact Tebow offense.

If that doesn't convince you to watch the game, then I'll give you another reason.  Von Miller, the outside linebacker who Denver chose with the second pick of this year's draft, is quietly having a better season than any other rookie in the league, including Cam Newton.  ProFootballFocus touts him as not just the Defensive Rookie of the Year, but the Defensive Player of the Year.  Keep your eye on him.

Pick - Jets

Pick Against the Spread - Jets (-6)

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