My Week 10 NFL Picks

The NFC South isn't the only division that's up for grabs this week.

Thanks to the Raiders' upset last night, I'm already 1-0 this week.  I gave some analysis on each team in my Midseason Power Rankings, so my picks will be a bit abbreviated this time around.  If you read those rankings, you might recognize that there are a lot of important division games this Sunday.  Saints-Falcons, Steelers-Bengals, Lions-Bears, and Patriots-Jets, among others, will all go a long way towards determining who hosts a playoff game in January. 

Last week: 8-6; 6-8 Against the Spread 

Season: 83-47; 59-65-6 ATS 

Steelers at Bengals - The only other time Andy Dalton faced a 3-4 defense this year, the 49ers held the Bengals to 8 points.

Pick - Steelers

ATS - Steelers (-3.5) 

Broncos at Chiefs - Oakland's confused reaction to Tim Tebow's option offense reminded me of the 2008 game when Miami unleashed the wildcat on New England.

Pick - Broncos

ATS - Broncos (+3) 

Jaguars at Colts - This is one of Indianapolis' last shots at a win, but I can't pick a team that hasn't been competitive in a month.

Pick - Jaguars

ATS - Jaguars (-3) 

Bills at Cowboys -This is as big as inter-conference games get.  It's also the first time these teams have met since Nick Folk kicked two game-winners in a row on Monday Night (Bills fans may just want to move along to the next pick).

Pick - Bills

ATS - Bills (+5.5) 

Texans at Buccaneers - No one is running the ball better than Houston, and only six teams are giving up more rushing yards than Tampa Bay.

Pick - Texans

ATS - Texans (-3) 

Titans at Panthers - If Tennessee loses this one, the Texans can sleepwalk to the AFC South title.

Pick - Panthers

ATS - Panthers (-3.5) 

Redskins at Dolphins - Vontae Davis could show up hungover and still shut down Washington's passing game.

Pick - Dolphins

ATS - Dolphins (-4) 

Saints at Falcons - Last week showed how maddeningly inconsistent Matt Ryan has been this season.  He threw two touchdowns to Julio Jones, and then lobbed an inexplicable pick-six to the Colts.  This game is too close to call, so I'll take the better QB.

Pick - Saints

ATS - Saints (-1) 

Rams at Browns - Could this game be the worst of the NFL season?  I doubt it, since the Browns 6-3 victory over the Seahawks set the bar pretty high (or low).

Pick - Browns

ATS - Browns (-3) 

Cardinals at Eagles -  Kevin Kolb's injury is delaying bookies from setting a line on this game, which is like the United Nations postponing a summit because Portugal's flight got canceled.

Pick - Eagles

ATS - Cardinals (+whatever ridiculous spread the Dream Team gets) 

Ravens at Seahawks - Remember when Qwest Field (now CenturyLink Field) was a tough venue to play in? Seattle was 36-12 at home from 2003-2007.  Since then, they are 12-15. 

 Pick - Ravens

ATS - Ravens (-6.5) 

Giants at 49ers - In the 1980's, Bill Walsh's West Coast offense had some great battles with Bill Parcells' and Bill Belichick's physical defenses.  Twenty-five years later, the roles are reversed.  New York is a passing team and San Francisco is built on the run.

Pick - 49ers

ATS - Giants (+3.5) 

Patriots at Jets - On one hand, New England is two ridiculous comebacks away from being 7-1.  On the other hand, it seems like defenses have found the recipe to limit its offense (flood the middle of the field, where Wes Welker and the tight ends work best).

Pick - Jets

ATS - Jets (-2) 

Vikings at Packers - Let me stop you right there: Green Bay is not going undefeated, a la the 2007 Patriots.  Does anyone remember how good that New England team was?  In their 8-0 start, their average margin of victory was 26 points.  Twenty-six!  And even they later had close calls against the Eagles, Ravens, and Giants.  With the third-worst defense in the league, the Packers will drop a game somewhere along the way.
Pick - Packers
ATS - Vikings (+12.5) 

Odds courtesy of USA Today.
Image found here.