KID Week 11 Power Rankings - Luck Be A Lady Tonight

Each year, eleven of my best friends and I participate in a keeper fantasy football league, dubbed "Keeper? I Don't Even Like Her!" (KID, for short).  These power rankings are for them.

This has happened to all of you.  Your team has a great week, puts up 120 points, and you outscore every other team in the league...except your opponent, who puts up 130.  Meanwhile, your buddy notches a win even though his team scores a measly 75 points.  As they say, there is no defense in fantasy football.  No matter how well you draft and trade, a good portion of your team's destiny relies on sheer luck.  So, how lucky have each of you been this season?

Here are our current standings:

	Team	Record	Pts For	Pts Against
1.	Beast Mode	9-1	1202.5	902.54
2.	Rice and Breesy	8-2	1153.38	931.58
3.	Room for Regret	6-4	1073.8	953.12
4.	Dirty Mike&The Boys	5-5	927.88	1015.86
5.	Doctor Asshole	5-5	922.56	921.14
6.	Father Superior	5-5	919.64	965.84
7.	The MightyKegs	5-5	880.2	923.74
8.	A Few Good Chicks	4-6	1117.96	1088.5
9.	Aluminum Pint	4-6	860.14	924.54
10.	Lambs_of_Combat!	4-6	805.98	924.6
11.	Hostile Takeover	3-7	807.94	1024.78
12.	The Pudgy Pelican	2-8	914.76	1010.5

Teams in our league score an average of 97 points per week.  This is a lot higher than the 87 point average of a few years ago, thanks to the proliferation of the passing game (passing yards result in more fantasy points because two players accumulate stats instead of just one).  I've identified "lucky wins" for times when a team gets a victory with a below-average score, and "unlucky losses" when a team falls with an above-average output.

	Team	Record	Points	Lucky Wins	Unlucky Losses	Adjusted Record
1.	Rice and Breesy	8-2	1153.38	0	2	10-0
2.	Beast Mode	9-1	1202.5	1	0	8-2
3.	A Few Good Chicks	4-6	1117.96	0	4	8-2
4.	Room for Regret	6-4	1073.8	1	1	6-4
5.	Dirty Mike&The Boys	5-5	927.88	1	1	5-5
6.	The Pudgy Pelican	2-8	914.76	0	3	5-5
7.	Aluminum Pint	4-6	860.14	1	1	5-5
8.	Doctor Asshole	5-5	922.56	2	1	4-6
9.	Hostile Takeover	3-7	807.94	1	2	4-6
10.	Father Superior	5-5	919.64	3	1	3-7
11.	The MightyKegs	5-5	880.2	3	1	3-7
12.	Lambs_of_Combat!	4-6	805.98	2	0	2-8

The first thing you'll notice is that Sumit (Rice and Breesy) has yet to have a bad week this season.  He had 101 and 134 points in his two losses, and could easily be undefeated.  Will (A Few Good Chicks) should be contending for a bye.  Instead, four losses with 99+ points have left him scrambling to even make the playoffs.  I started the season 0-5 despite eclipsing 100 points three times.  With a little better luck, perhaps the Pudgy Pelicans wouldn't be in rebuilding mode.  On the other hand, Stratis (The Mighty Kegs) and Scott (Lambs_of_Combat!) have had some favorable outcomes that have lifted them into the playoff race.

However, these adjusted records are a bit inflated, because an unlucky loss doesn't guarantee a lucky win on the other side of the scoreboard.  Indeed, there have been 17 unlucky losses and only 15 lucky wins this season.  Therefore, let's dive deeper and take a look at how many teams you've outscored each week.  An 11 indicates that you were the highest point total that week and would have beaten all 11 other teams.  A 10 means you're the second-highest scorer, and so on.  Here it is, week by week:

	Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	Total
1.	Beast Mode	4	8	6	11	11	11	10	10	11	11	93
2.	Rice and Breesy	10	2	11	10	10	6	8	9	7	7	80
3.	A Few Good Chicks	9	11	5	7	4	8	9	8	9	8	78
4.	Room for Regret	11	9	10	5	5	10	2	5	8	6	71
5.	Doctor Asshole	1	10	1	9	3	7	5	3	10	2	51
6.	Dirty Mike&The Boys	3	7	7	6	7	1	11	4	3	0	49
7.	Father Superior	2	6	3	3	8	3	7	11	0	5	48
8.	The Pudgy Pelican	8	4	2	4	6	9	0	1	6	4	44
9.	Aluminum Pint	6	5	8	8	0	0	3	6	2	3	41
10.	The MightyKegs	7	1	4	2	1	4	1	2	4	10	36
11.	Hostile Takeover	0	3	0	1	2	5	4	7	5	9	36
12.	Lambs_of_Combat!	5	0	9	0	9	2	6	0	1	1	33

This not only gives us an idea of who has been the best team overall, but how each team has trended throughout the season.  There's no team hotter than Beast Mode right now, as Hunt has been a top-two scorer for seven weeks straight.  Sumit has slowed down a bit in the last couple of weeks, as has Colin (Dirty Mike & The Boys).  Scott's recent nosedive is quickly taking him out of playoff contention, despite what his record says.  And poor Will is still crushing it in the points column, with few wins to show for it.

If standings were calculated this way, with each team being rated against its competition rather than one arbitrary opponent each week, fantasy football would be much more fair.  Nevertheless I prefer the current format.  The individual rivalries, smacktalk and side bets are the enjoyment of being in a league with your friends.  But it never hurts to have a little luck on your side.

Image found here.