Friday, November 18, 2011

My Week 11 NFL Picks - Unheralded Stars

Perhaps more people would know Cameron Wake's name if it wasn't covered it mud.

The Bronco win last night may have started me at 0-1 this week, but boy was it thrilling.  As you sift through the Tim Tebow praise this weekend, don't forget how good the Denver defense has played as of late.  They're currently eighth in the league in points allowed, and much of that is thanks to the play of Von Miller.  So far, the rookie linebacker looks very deserving of the 2nd overall pick the Broncos used to draft him this year.


In honor of Miller, who was overlooked by many fans until his 10 tackle, 1.5 sack performance last night, I'll highlight some players who are excelling this year but may not yet be a household name.  ( Note: I relied on ProFootballFocus for many of the stats you'll see below.  I highly recommend visiting their site and even signing up for a Premium Membership.  It's well worth it.)

Last week: 10-6; 8-8 Against the Spread 
Season: 93-53; 67-73-6 ATS 

Titans at Falcons - Michael Roos is the only bright spot in Tennessee's disappointing running game.  The left tackle is playing at an All-Pro level and hasn't given up a sack yet this season.
Pick - Falcons
ATS - Falcons (-6) 

Bills at Dolphins - Karlos Dansby says that he's the best linebacker in the NFL, but he's not even the best on his own team.  That title goes to Cameron Wake, whose 29 QB pressures leads the league.  Wake was the CFL Defensive Player of the Year for two straight seasons before NFL teams noticed him.
Pick - Bills
ATS - Bills (+2) 

Bengals at Ravens - With only three sacks, Cincinnati defensive end Carlos Dunlap is still having a better season than last year, when he had 9.5.  His game against Seattle, when he notched one sack, three QB hits and seven QB pressures, was a thing of beauty.
Pick - Ravens
ATS - Ravens (-6.5) 

Jaguars at Browns - Jacksonville linebacker Daryl Smith has excelled in every facet of the game this season, from run-stopping to coverage to pass-rushing.
Pick - Jaguars
ATS - Jaguars (+1) 

Raiders at Vikings - After failing to improve upon the 11 sacks he had in his rookie season as a Brown, pass-rushing linebacker Kamerion Wimbley has rediscovered his game in Oakland.  He nearly single-handedly destroyed the Charger o-line last week.
Pick - Raiders
ATS - Raiders (+1) 

Panthers at Lions - Conversations about Detroit's defense usually start and stop with Ndamukong Suh, but many don't realize how mediocre his run defense is.  Thankfully, Corey Williams' stout play hides many of Suh's mistakes.
Pick - Lions
ATS - Lions (-7) 

Buccaneers at Packers - Green Bay's offensive line has struggled a bit since left tackle Chad Clifton went down in Week 5, but it would be doing a lot worse if right tackle Bryan Bulaga wasn't playing like a Pro Bowler.
Pick - Packers
ATS - Buccaneers (+14) 

Cowboys at Redskins - Unless you play fantasy football, you might not know of the exploits of Laurent Robinson.  His 441 yards and four touchdowns have kept Dallas afloat each of the (many) times that Miles Austin or Dez Bryant has pulled up lame.
Pick - Cowboys
ATS - Cowboys(-7) 

Cardinals at 49ers - Patrick Willis is a perennial Pro Bowler and Justin Smith is finally starting to get his due, but you can't talk about San Francisco's great defense without mentioning NaVorro Bowman, who is second in the league in tackles.
Pick - Cardinals
ATS - Cardinals (+9) 

Seahawks at Rams - Kam Chancellor's development has been a bright spot on an otherwise dark season for Seattle.  His three interceptions and eight passes defensed are impressive for a strong safety.
Pick - Rams
ATS - Rams (-3) 

Chargers at Bears - San Diego linebacker Antwan Barnes has been filling in admirably for an injured Shaun Phillips.  He has six sacks despite playing in only five games.
 Pick - Bears
ATS - Bears (-3.5) 

Eagles at Giants - New York's cornerbacks have been decimated by injuries this season, which makes Corey Webster's performance that much more clutch.  He single-handedly turned around the Buffalo game twice by intercepting Ryan Fitzpatrick.
Pick - Giants
ATS - Eagles (+6) 

Chiefs at Patriots - Kansas City linebacker Derrick Johnson doesn't bring much of a pass rush, but he is a brick wall against the run.  His 55 solo tackles are good for seventh in the league.
Pick - Patriots
ATS - Patriots (-14.5) 

Odds courtesy of USA Today.
Image found here

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